05/04/2020 雅歌评论：《如果Covid-19是人工制造的，谁是最大的嫌疑犯（初步怀疑）》、天然气、大盘走势短评 （完成） (谈股论金)  6076次阅读

作者: 贴心小秘书 , 发表于: 2020-05-03 (1452天前)
编辑: 雅歌, 时间: 星期一, 五月 04, 2020, 09:59

观看【贴心小秘书】的博客

天然气：

天然气盘前大幅反弹上涨，俺上周五的短评有预料到周一天然气可能反弹。 反弹的幅度比较大最近是常见的，这一次是因为短期1-10日的气温比之前预测的更利多，请看下面的GWDD和NOAA的6-10日图。

俺说过5月份的天然气走势是来回震荡盘整的格局，DGAZ的波动区间大约是从170到275元。天然气的价格因为Contango 的幅度比较大，很难设定范围。若要设定范围，幅度会比较大，大约就是1.58元到2元。

越靠近6月份，天然气会稍微偏向利多的一边，因为极端的气候可能造成6月份的气温偏热入盛夏。

天然气的减产会是缓慢长期的，大约一个月减少0.5BCF/日。全球的经济衰退，也造成工业用的天然气减少，随着未来全球逐渐复工，这减幅很快停止，但要回升不会那么快。也是缓慢逐渐的。

因为Contango价格结构已经反映了大部分复工的基本面，认为天然气会因此大涨可以获利其实也是错误的！未来还是要看气温的变化，才能决定是否会继续上涨，还是会下跌。Contango的架构其实利于做空的一方，因为下跌的空间会因着月份升水而扩大， 上升的空间会被压制，除非继续出现利多的因素如极端气温，或意外大幅度的减产，才会让天然气价格继续在高度升水的价位上上涨。比如今年11月份的天然气上周五到了2.42元，上升到3元是需要更多的利多因素！

今天的GWDD图与上周五的相比，出现15或以上的比较多天和更大。上周五大部分都在15以下，只有2天在15。

下面是上周五的图形：

操作建议：

今天DGAZ可以在180-196元分批买进。短期几天的气温是稍微利多。但目前还是过产，抵消了气温利多的因素。本周四的报告是利空。下周四的应该是中性稍微偏空。

UGAZ若是上周五有买进，可以在29元以上卖出。盘前开盘之前，对应的天然气到过1.87元，表示UGAZ有可能最高到30元附近。目前UGAZ是29.15元。

大盘走势：

大盘今天继续下跌，这是第三天连续下跌，正如俺上周五在微信群里说，只要道琼指数跌超过500点收盘，SPX跌幅超过2%收盘，没有出现大幅拉尾盘的话，星期一继续下跌的可能性会更大！因为这是表示MM的意图或态度！

从3/23日SPX跌至2191最低点以来，没有出现过连3日下跌的！跌一日反弹的最多。连续下跌2日反弹的有2次。今天是连三日下跌是第一次，应该会维持到收盘！

上周连涨4日后微跌一日再度大涨（上周三）是MM的操纵结果！MM其实也不认为美国的股市反映现实的经济，MM其实也不乐观！比如高盛预测年底SPX到3000点，上周三最高到了2954点。MS最近预估年代SPX到2700点，显然指数现在已经超过很多！

但为什么过去6个交易日会出现MM拉高指数，甚至拉尾盘的动作呢？
俺认为这是因为在3/4日，大盘指数开始明显下降趋势之前，MM继续维持多仓，没有出逃！（只有共和党的参议院在1/31日卖掉手上的全部股票，因为听了疫情简报后）。 这个证据是：
1。SPX的期货到三月中，3/27日是+12.7K， 都是维持净多仓。4/3日开始是-28.8K。 上周二（5/1日公布的数据）是-265.6K，是最近几年来最高的净空仓位！比前一周的-192.7K多很多！

虽然期货仓位不一定代表机构投资人MM的实际仓位，但可见MM是在赌股市反弹，一直到3/27日！

2。上周二新债王Jeffrey Gunlach说他开始做空美国的股市。但周三大盘继续大涨，净空仓位应该更多。

3。从3/4日开始，大盘指数是跌一天反弹一天，反弹的幅度比下跌小， 或跌2天反弹一天，而逐渐跌至2191点的（3/23日）的。之后是反过来。

所以MM当初是不在意这疫情，或认为股市还是牛市，都在抄底， 到了3月底。但到了4月份，各种经济数据出来，远远超过MM的初步预估，MM最初预估Q2的GDP下跌大约14%（JPM），然后Q3出现V型反弹，增长15%！，高声随后预估Q2 的GDP下跌24%， 然后隔了一周下修到-34%。当时高盛认为SPX最少跌至2000点，那时候是3/23日前后。后来SPX反弹到2700点附近时，高盛才把标杆改为3000点，认为底部已经形成了！

4。过去6个周四的失业人数报告都比预期的糟糕，可是前五个周四股市就是上涨。美联储主席鲍尔每周四8；30AM数据出来后，就出来公布一项新措施，很明显就是要拉抬股市。上周四还是如此，但失效了！因为股市已经非常超买，价值已经到了历来最大的泡沫！巴菲特指数已经显示上周三股市总价到了1.85倍GDP值。

2/19日，SPX到3393时，巴菲特指数也是到了当时最高的1.53附近。

5。传染病防疫主任佛奇（Fauci)和美联储主席鲍尔企图超高股市，配合MM炒高美股市是很明显的！MM要炒高股市需要一个炒作的议题，一个炒作的好消息！否则MM在买，散户在抛，没有人抬轿子！MM反而变成帮散户抬轿子，MM怎么可能让这种事发生呢？

6 上周连续涨四天后再大涨一天（周三），俺当时说Gilead的好消息不是不小心泄露的，而是人为的！是配合MM炒高走脱的！因为Gilead泄露还没完成的报告不是第一次，而是在2周内第二次！Fauci虽然事后自圆其说他出来帮忙证实和宣传这好消息是希望病患可以早一些得到治疗，他本人反对泄露还没完成的实验报告！非常的虚伪！只是他长得人畜无害，说话温和，很难让人讨厌！许多骗子通常也是长得人畜无害，能言善道！

SPX的支撑点2800 和2760如果可以跌破，技术面会变成利空。中线大约在2792附近，若是明确跌破， MACD会形成交叉，表示短期的方向改变了。如果没有跌破2760点，可能明天会反弹。若是连2800点都没跌破，今天有可能小跌或微涨收盘，明天会反弹一天。

今天大盘下跌的主要原因有2个，姑且不说这是MM转为做空的套路这个原因。
1。巴菲特在ER报告说已经把所有的航空股全卖了，这大约价值在40-60亿美元。巴菲特承认自己错了，没有第一时间把航空股卖出，正如许多美国的机构投资人MM一样，没想到美国会发生疫情，而且变成全球最严重的疫区！

巴菲特说航空业要恢复至少到2023年，是他无法承受的。 如果他看好一家企业，他不会卖股，反而会趁机抄底买进捡便宜！

上周有文章解释说巴菲特卖航空股，只是调节持股百分比。因为持股到10% 后，SEC的规定会很麻烦。 所以很多MM炒股或长期投资人都不愿意持高出10%的股份。俺当时就怀疑这种说法，因为巴菲特（他的公司）如果没买没卖股，持有比例不会变动，不管股票上下波动如何大，市值便动如何大，都不影响！只有2种可能会改变持股比例，公司大量回购，减少股票数目，比例会上升。公司若是大量增发新股，会稀释股票比例，持股比例会下降。

巴菲特说已经全部卖光航空股是达脸该作者！市场也因此忧虑！因为过去10天，航空股上涨不少，豪华邮轮股也跟着大幅上涨。这是完全不合理的！

乘客对豪华邮轮的恐惧症最少未来6个月不会消失！只要有一人感染，整船的游客都无法下船回家！只有没工作的退休人员可以不在乎行程被打乱， 但退休人员大部分年纪大，被感染几乎是致命的，也不划算！

巴菲特对航空公司不看好，表示对美国的疫情不看好！是对Q3经济要V型反弹不看好！2008年年底，巴菲特是抄底高盛，抄底GE， 最后在2009年抄底美国银行的股票。当时是金融海啸。

2。川普政府对中国的指控，日益严重，说是武汉P4实验室出来的，要求赔偿！并且鼓动全球对中国索赔，澳洲在配合川普摇旗呐喊，英国也说过要追究中国。现在欧盟也有些人说需要中国说明。

武汉P4 实验室是商业实验室，不是军方的生化武器实验室。石正丽的SARS病毒研究是美国NIH 资助的！试验的计划，方法都要提报告给资助单位审核！

石正丽在过去几年曾与北卡大学发表过论文，据说有提到SARS若被人为基因改造，可能会变得更容易传染。会警告的人一般不会做，会咬人的狗不会叫。P4 实验室没有那么大的能耐，设备，资金和人员可以搞出人工的病毒！
全球各大权威人工搞出Covid-19的可能性非常低，因为人类的技术还没到那么强！

俺说过，如果是人工制造的，唯一的可能性就是美国政府所做！美国的基因科技领先全球，可能有能力，也有动机！动机是打击中国的经济，没想到害到自己。另外，美国也有前科，在1960-1975年时期，美国就在国民不知情之下，实验生化武器，辐射对人体的伤害。是利用不知情的官兵，美国的残障人士，精神病患实验。还有在校园里放置放射性的食物在贩卖机里。不但用美国人实验，还用加拿大和英国人实验。

请看下面的链接！

香港股市昨天大跌4.18%， 日本股市下跌2.84%， 韩国股市下跌2.68%，是因为这缘故！

中美未来可能升高贸易战，甚至爆发战争也不是完全不可能的！川普已经扬言有对中国贸易制裁，提高关税。中国也会报复！中美达成的协议，估计中国不会履行！中国本月份的人大会议，可能会达成内部的团结，对美国采取强硬的对策！

中国的投降派，以江为核心的贪官派，应该会暂时收敛！

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Trump cuts U.S. research on bat-human virus transmission over China ties

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-cuts-us-research-on-bat-human-virus-transmission-over-china-ties/ar-BB13hJI1?ocid=spartanntp
The National Institutes of Health on Friday told EcoHealth Alliance, the study’s sponsor for the past five years, that all future funding was cut. The agency also demanded that the New York-based research nonprofit stop spending the $369,819 remaining from its 2020 grant, according to emails obtained by POLITICO.

Director of Wuhan lab denies virus link

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/director-of-wuhan-lab-denies-virus-link/ar-BB12QKwl?ocid=spartanntp
The director of a maximum-security laboratory in China's coronavirus ground-zero city of Wuhan has rejected claims that it could be the source of the outbreak, calling it "impossible".

None of his staff had been infected, he told the English-language state broadcaster CGTN, adding the "whole institute is carrying out research in different areas related to the coronavirus".
The institute had already dismissed the theory in February, saying it had shared information about the pathogen with the World Health Organization in early January.

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U.S. Admits Bio-Weapons Tests
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-admits-bio-weapons-tests/

The United States secretly tested chemical and biological weapons on American soil during the 1960s, newly declassified Pentagon reports show.
The tests included releasing deadly nerve agents in Alaska and spraying bacteria over Hawaii, according to the documents obtained Tuesday.

The United States also tested nerve agents in Canada and Britain in conjunction with those two countries, and biological and chemical weapons in at least two other states, Maryland and Florida.

"Our focus must be on quickly identifying those veterans who were involved, assessing whether they suffered any negative health consequences and, if warranted, providing them with adequate health care and compensation for their service," said Rep. Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican.
The tests were part of Project 112, a military program in the 1960s and 1970s to test chemical and biological weapons and defenses against them. Parts of the testing program done on Navy ships were called Project SHAD, or Shipboard Hazard and Defense.

The Defense Department has identified nearly 3,000 soldiers involved in tests disclosed earlier, but the VA has sent letters to fewer than half of them. VA and Pentagon officials acknowledged at a July hearing that finding the soldiers has been difficult.

The United States scrapped its biological weapons program in the late 1960s and agreed in a 1997 treaty to destroy all of its chemical weapons. Some of those involved in the tests say they now suffer health problems linked to their exposure to dangerous chemicals and germs. They are pressing the Veterans Affairs Department to compensate them.

Rapid Tan I, II, and III, a series of tests in 1967 and 1968 in England and Canada. The tests used sarin and VX, as well as the nerve agents tabun and soman, at the British chemical weapons facility in Porton Down, England. Tests at the Suffield Defence Research Establishment in Ralston, Canada, included tabun and soman, the records show.
Tabun and soman are chemically related to sarin and produce similar effects.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_biological_weapons_program

[There was] ... a history of dozens of allegations made by various branches of the Soviet government for the entire post-World War II period charging that the United States had used biological weapons. As best as is known, all of these allegations are deliberate, fraudulent concoctions. The most notorious of these were the allegations made by the Soviet Union, the People's Republic of China, and North Korea, charging that the United States used biological weapons during the 1950-1953 Korean War. There was a brief respite from these charges between 1987 and 1992, but after that former Soviet military officials who were part of the Soviet Union's own BW program once again began to repeat the same discredited charges.[44]
In March 2010, the allegations were investigated by the Al Jazeera English news program People & Power.[54] In this program, Professor Mori Masataka investigated historical artifacts in the form of bomb casings from US biological weapons, contemporary documentary evidence and eyewitness testimonies.[54] He concluded that the United States did, in fact, test biological weapons on North Korea during the Korean War.[54]

In 1971 the first serious outbreak of African Swine Fever in the Western Hemisphere occurred in Cuba. The Cuban government alleged that U.S. covert biological warfare was responsible for this outbreak, which led to the preemptive slaughter of 500,000 pigs.[56] The outbreak was labeled the "most alarming event" of 1971 by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Six years after the event, the newspaper Newsday, citing untraceable sources,[60][61] claimed that anti-Castro saboteurs, with at least the tacit backing of U.S. Central Intelligence Agency officials, introduced African swine fever virus into Cuba six weeks before the outbreak in 1971, to destabilize the Cuban economy and encourage domestic opposition to Fidel Castro. The virus was allegedly delivered to the operatives from an army base in the Panama Canal Zone by an unnamed U.S. intelligence source.[62][63] Evidence linking these incidents to biological warfare has not been confirmed.[56]

In February 2008, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released report GAO-08-366 titled, "Chemical and Biological Defense, DOD and VA Need to Improve Efforts to Identify and Notify Individuals Potentially Exposed during Chemical and Biological Tests." The report stated that tens of thousands of military personnel and civilians may have been exposed to biological and chemical substances through DOD tests. In 2003, the DOD reported it had identified 5,842 military personnel and estimated 350 civilians as being potentially exposed during the testing, known as Project 112.[71]
Current (post-1969) bio-defense program[edit]
Main article: United States biological defense program
Both the U.S. bio-weapons ban and the Biological Weapons Convention restricted any work in the area of biological warfare to defensive in nature. In reality, this gives BWC member-states wide latitude to conduct biological weapons research because the BWC contains no provisions for monitoring or enforcement.[74][75] The treaty, essentially, is a gentlemen's agreement amongst members backed by the long-prevailing thought that biological warfare should not be used in battle.[74]

After Nixon declared an end to the U.S. bio-weapons program, debate in the Army centered around whether or not toxin weapons were included in the president's declaration.[29] Following Nixon's November 1969 order, scientists at Fort Detrick worked on one toxin, Staphylococcus enterotoxin type B (SEB), for several more months.[29] Nixon ended the debate when he added toxins to the bio-weapons ban in February 1970.[27] The U.S. also ran a series of experiments with anthrax, code named Project Bacchus, Project Clear Vision and Project Jefferson in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

In recent years certain critics have claimed the U.S. stance on biological warfare and the use of biological agents has differed from historical interpretations of the BWC.[76] For example, it is said that the U.S. now maintains that the Article I of the BWC (which explicitly bans bio-weapons), does not apply to "non-lethal" biological agents.[76] Previous interpretation was stated to be in line with a definition laid out in Public Law 101-298, the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989.[77] That law defined a biological agent as:[77]
any micro-organism, virus, infectious substance, or biological product that may be engineered as a result of biotechnology, or any naturally occurring or bioengineered component of any such microorganism, virus, infectious substance, or biological product, capable of causing death, disease, or other biological malfunction in a human, an animal, a plant, or another living organism; deterioration of food, water, equipment, supplies, or material of any kind ...
According to the Federation of American Scientists, U.S. work on non-lethal agents exceeds limitations in the BWC.[76]

Human radiation experiments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_radiation_experiments
On January 15, 1994, President Bill Clinton formed the Advisory Committee on Human Radiation Experiments (ACHRE), chaired by Ruth Faden[6][7] of the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics. One of the primary motivating factors behind his decision to create ACHRE was a step taken by his newly-appointed Secretary of Energy, Hazel O'Leary, one of whose first actions on taking the helm of the United States Department of Energy was to announce a new openness policy for the Department. The new policy led almost immediately to the release of over 1.6 million pages of classified records.
These records made clear that since the 1940s, the Atomic Energy Commission had been sponsoring tests on the effects of radiation on the human body. American citizens who had checked into hospitals for a variety of ailments were secretly injected, without their knowledge, with varying amounts of plutonium and other radioactive materials.
Ebb Cade was an unwilling participant in medical experiments that involved injection of 4.7 micrograms of plutonium on 10 April 1945 at Oak Ridge, Tennessee.[8][9] This experiment was under the supervision of Harold Hodge.[10] Most patients thought it was "just another injection," but the secret studies left enough radioactive material in many of the patients' bodies to induce life-threatening conditions.
Such experiments were not limited to hospital patients, but included other populations such as those set out above, e.g., orphans fed irradiated milk, children injected with radioactive materials, prisoners in Washington and Oregon state prisons. Much of the experimentation was carried out in order to assess how the human body metabolizes radioactive materials, information that could be used by the Departments of Energy and Defense in Cold War defense and attack planning.
ACHRE's final report was also a factor in the Department of Energy establishing an Office of Human Radiation Experiments (OHRE) that assured publication of DOE’s involvement, by way of its predecessor, the AEC, in Cold War radiation research and experimentation on human subjects. The final report issued by the ACHRE can be found at the Department of Energy's website.

《如果Covid-19是人工制造的，谁是最大的嫌疑犯（初步怀疑）》

武汉地病毒研究所，P4实验室的石正丽的确是研究SARS病毒的来源，认为是来自蝙蝠。她发表过不少论文关于SARS病毒的，也曾经公开在论文里警告过如果SARS病毒被人工改造，可以创造出一种更容易传染的新病毒！如果她是祸首，就不会发表在论文里！如果是中国政府的生物武器计划，也不会容许她发表这样的论文！但是全世界知道SARS病毒的生物研究专家很多！欧洲的不会去这么做！只有美国，俄罗斯，中国，或许日本的政府会悄悄的做。但首先爆发在中国，表示不可能是中国政府做的！况且习大大1/8日才知道武汉爆发新冠肺炎，当时灾情不是特别严重，最多是数百人感染。全世界当时候没有其它的地区有人感染，因为不知道这新的病毒。中国CDC向WHO报告说出现一种的新的传染病是 12/30/2019。当时候还不知道是新冠病毒。表示中国政府不知道是什么病毒！如果是中国政府的秘密计划，即使不小心让病毒从实验室外泄，不会有这么迟钝的反应！如果是石正丽自己搞出来的，恐怕没这个能量！必须要有一群人，有财力和尖端设备，才可能制造出来！中国政府应该可以很快查出来，无法保密！习近平会第一时间处置石正丽和P4实验室的计划主持人。因为当时根本没有国际的压力，全世界没有人发现被感染！
武汉的市长，湖南的省长，卫健委都因此被革职。这些人若可以找到替罪羔羊，都会积极去做。如果是P4实验室搞出来的，怎么可能会放过？怎么可能会放过石正丽！