2/1/2017《Bob Pisani 对大盘走势的看法》 所有非3X的股票,大盘走势等。 高手们也可以自由报名牌,操作入场点,和获利目标和时限!中国股市在此讨论!SVXY/UVXY也在此讨论!警告:炒股具有风险,后果自负! (谈股论金) 6272次阅读
观看【雅歌】的博客Halfway through earnings season: Time to rethink the big Trump earnings boost
We're just about halfway through earnings season, and the results have been encouraging, with blended earnings up 7.1 percent for the fourth quarter and revenue up about 4.2 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.
The good news: the 2016 earnings recession is now over.
Now the hard part starts. The markets are anticipating double-digit earnings growth in all the major sectors throughout 2017. That includes an increase of 10.5 percent in the first quarter alone. The two largest sectors, technology and financials, are expecting earnings to increase 14 percent and 16 percent respectively, in the first quarter.
Is there any chance corporate America can deliver on the big expectations?
It's a tall order, and part of the problem with the markets in the last few days is that we may be entering a period when the market is settling into more realistic expectations.
Here's why:
1) The current quarter numbers, while up, are very uneven. There are expectations that revenue growth will be substantial in 2017—up more than 7 percent in the first quarter alone—but early signs are not encouraging. Tuesday alone, of 21 S&P 500 companies reported, 16 missed on sales.
David Aurelio, who tracks earnings for Thomson Reuters, noted that only 46 percent of those reporting are beating on the top line in the fourth quarter, well below the 59 percent historic norm.
"That tells you that expectations are a bit high," Aurelio said.
2) Corporations are being very conservative on 2017 guidance. Nick Raich, who tracks corporate earnings as the Earnings Scout, noted that of those that have reported and commented on 2017 earnings so far, only one in four are seeing first quarter estimates raised by analysts, less than the three-year average.
"After Trump was elected, people thought for sure we would see 2017 estimates turn higher, but they are not," Raich said. "The companies are still in wait and see mode to see if the Trump promises of lower taxes and infrastructure spending would really translate into higher earnings."
3) Traders are debating how much real earnings "oomph" will come from lower taxes. Initially estimates of a substantial earnings boost of 10 percent to 15 percent to the S&P 500 from lower taxes were based on rough calculations that the corporate tax rate would go from 35 percent to roughly 20 percent. Traders are now realizing that the picture is far more nuanced. Raich noted that the average corporation that has reported for the fourth quarter has an "effective" tax rate (what they really pay) of roughly 24 percent, with many paying rates even less than that. Only 25 percent are paying the maximum rate of 35 percent.
There's no doubt corporations will benefit from a tax cut. Earnings conference calls are full of generally positive references to tax cuts, like this one from Verizon on Jan. 24: "Whichever year is the first year it applies to, whether it applies to 2017 or whether it initially apply to 2018, we're definitely seeing it being a benefit to the cash taxes we pay. But given the uncertainty of the specifics of the plan, it's a little too soon to say exactly how much that could be."
There's the problem: warm and fuzzy commentary is not translating into any earnings increase, at least not yet. At the very least, those expecting a 15 percent bump in earnings just because of a tax cut may be expecting too much. And throw in more complicated discussions like border taxes, and you can see why traders are re-examining the whole issue.
Finally, there is a much broader macro question the market is grappling with: can the baton pass smoothly from easy monetary policy to easy fiscal policy? This is the central question. If it can, there might be a smooth handoff, and earnings will rise enough to justify current prices. How well that transition goes will determine if the rally can continue.
It really goes back to an issue that almost no one has stopped to consider: is this truly a self-sustaining economic recovery? Or is the global economy still on life support and dependent on central banks? Are phrases that have become famous in the last few years like "the new normal" and "lower for longer" truly consigned to the ash heap of history?
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俺昨天说如果标普500指数没跌破2268点,前天的低点,今天会反弹一些。昨天AAPL的财报超过预期,AAPL的股价今天大涨4%, 带动了大盘上涨。加上今天是月初,按惯例401K的贡献资金会入场买股,多少会拉动上涨行情。可是大盘指数已经处于高价位,标普500的平均P/E已高达19,比正常的12倍高出很多。所以应该乘涨抛售,也可以做空!
上文讲述市场对川普的企业减税预期过高,不切实际。市场认为企业收入税率从最高的35%若减为20%会自动让企业的盈利增加10%-15%之多,这是错误的计算方式!
完整帖子:
- 2/1/2017《Bob Pisani 对大盘走势的看法》 所有非3X的股票,大盘走势等。 高手们也可以自由报名牌,操作入场点,和获利目标和时限!中国股市在此讨论!SVXY/UVXY也在此讨论!警告:炒股具有风险,后果自负! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 雅歌老师早安 同学们早 - 玘坧, 2017-02-01
- X 33.6. - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- 庆幸早扔了钢板 - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- X坚强 - heather, 2017-02-01
- 我的还在,在考虑是否止损,季报听上去beat 很多,实际上净loss ,希望不要发疯哈 - 如歌如水, 2017-02-01
- 我去年空x丢了1000多,一直想找机会补回来。 - heather, 2017-02-01
- 昨天扔了+1,这么一会掉一块了,刚才33点多没空有点后悔。。 - evangemi, 2017-02-01
- 哇,瀑布得这么厉害,好后悔。。。 - evangemi, 2017-02-01
- 赞明智 当断不断 反受其乱 从此X涨跌于你无关 少操心一件事 - 玘坧, 2017-02-01
- 起子, 你说的太对了。 不敢随便空股了, 也要学会控制仓位, 不要随便加仓 AVERAGE DOWN, 使本来小亏变大亏。都是用白花花的银子买的教训 - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- 庆幸早扔了钢板 - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- X 33.6. - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- 老师,什么价位可以空钢板?前天跟你买的小钢板AkS,也在什么位置上扔?谢谢! - bredsox, 2017-02-01
- 同问。不过我的aks价$8.05 - heather, 2017-02-01
- 老师说锅aks短期3-5日 $8.5-9.5 - heather, 2017-02-01
- AKS基本上不用停损,如果要设停损可以设7.66元。短期目标是8.5-9.0元! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 老师早上好。跟着老师买了点AKS,现在是绿的。 - 绿叶, 2017-02-01
- 老师,今天AKS跌了,什么价位可以再补? - 绿叶, 2017-02-01
- AKS可以在7.7-7.9元加码! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 7.66加了AKS - 绿叶, 2017-02-01
- 同问 是止损点呢 - heather, 2017-02-01
- 跟着老师买了! - Wuhong, 2017-02-01
- 买了AKS@7.68 - 傻妞, 2017-02-01
- 7.66加了AKS - 绿叶, 2017-02-01
- AKS可以在7.7-7.9元加码! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 老师,TWLO 怎么看? - jjgouwu, 2017-02-01
- 雅歌老师,空AA要撤了吗? - 妮妮, 2017-02-01
- 不用,AA还会再跌!到目标价35元时再平仓! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 老师早,请问如何解读x季报?有些confusing - dt学徒, 2017-02-01
- X乘高做空没变!33.5元以上做空,目标还是30元! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师!现在大盘上x下了点,等30目标 - 如歌如水, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师指导 - dt学徒, 2017-02-01
- 现在 X 31.5 左右,能否反手做多,止盈设 33.0. 这是俺的设想,希望老师指明。 - Inhale, 2017-02-01
- X不要做多!30元是第一目标,28元是第二目标! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢,刚才是俺突然冒出的念头,就等老师发话了,俺吃了个午餐,现在已经31以下了。 - Inhale, 2017-02-01
- X不要做多!30元是第一目标,28元是第二目标! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师!现在大盘上x下了点,等30目标 - 如歌如水, 2017-02-01
- X乘高做空没变!33.5元以上做空,目标还是30元! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 老师,adp可以买来长持吗? - hust1986, 2017-02-01
- ADP今天跳水先不要买,等更低再买进。这不是成长股,短炒抄底是可以。 - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 雅歌老师, AMD 要不要先卖掉? 谢谢! - Gracie555, 2017-02-01
- 所有的股票今天都应该乘涨卖掉! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢雅歌老师,卖了, 赚了800块, 多谢! - Gracie555, 2017-02-01
- 请问老师 “所有”是啥意思?全部出场吗?股市要跳水了? - Inhale, 2017-02-01
- 嘿,这是比较夸张的说法,俺的意思是大部分已有赚的股票可以先卖了!俺说过未来2周大盘应该会向下修正约5%! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 药股也卖掉吗?有SNOY和gild. - 海上花, 2017-02-01
- GILD可以留着,73-74元再卖。另一个不太清楚! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢!SNOY 是sanofi , 欧洲制药。 AMD 涨了很多,怎么操作? - 海上花, 2017-02-01
- GILD可以留着,73-74元再卖。另一个不太清楚! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师提醒。买出赚钱的 Amd,appl, Amzn. 留水下的。 - 旭日东升660, 2017-02-01
- 所有的股票今天都应该乘涨卖掉! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 大盘从涨变为下跌的原因是:1。ADP就业数据比预期好得多。 2。ISM制造业PMI也比预期好。这表示联储会会维持加息较快的速度。市场主流认为股市会因此上涨,而俺认为相反!因为美国的经济成长其实还严重的要依靠联储会的低利率,接近没成本的货币扩充。 - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 雅歌大师,空 KSU 的目标还是79-80 不变吧? 俺一直再等这个点。 - Inhale, 2017-02-01
- 2周内应该会到! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢!俺的信心大增。能否简述一下理由,俺不但想知道操作的时间和价位,还想学习一下其机理。 - Inhale, 2017-02-01
- On January 30, 2017 Thomson Reuters/Verus upgraded KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN (KSU) from SELL to HOLD.这是前天的新闻,与老师的看法似乎不同,所以俺比较困惑。 - Inhale, 2017-02-01
- 2周内应该会到! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- QCOM已到了53元附近,上次有人说要抄底差不多可以入场了!苹果IPHONE的销售量还不错,表示QCOM未来的盈利不应太差,虽然诉讼案暂时会限制QCOM的股价不会涨得太高. - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 上周做空CAT或POT的,目标快到了!估计明天就会到! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 多谢!是Pulte吗?Pluti 代码Phm還是POT - 海上花, 2017-02-01
- POT是Potash,化肥股。Pulte Home是PHM,估计还要等多几天才会到。 - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 謝謝老师! - 海上花, 2017-02-01
- POT是Potash,化肥股。Pulte Home是PHM,估计还要等多几天才会到。 - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 多谢!是Pulte吗?Pluti 代码Phm還是POT - 海上花, 2017-02-01
- 有AKS的不要担心,今天是被X下跌拖累。 AKS已经从近期最高点11。39(12/8/2016)下跌了很多!价格已经在底部了,已经回到基本面了!论公司营运状况和执行,AKS一向都比X好,只是油管用美国钢的议题暂时支持X的价格。川普的保护主义会支持美国钢价,所以AKS很难继续下跌! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- Thank you, teacher. I just bought at 7.63. - hongyu234, 2017-02-01
- Laoshi,CHK 是不是可以拿着?昨天6、45买的 - 花猫咪咪, 2017-02-01
- 可以拿着! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师的定心丸,正在担心呢,老师就发话了,真是体恤民情啊。 - 绿叶, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师的更新。又少加了一点A'K'S - 傻妞, 2017-02-01
- 老师,请问CLR还可以继续持有吗?1/23那天放了一个$49的单,忘记取消,现在买入了。谢谢! - 燕阁, 2017-02-01
- CLR可以拿着,46-47时可以加码! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师! - 燕阁, 2017-02-01
- CLR可以拿着,46-47时可以加码! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 雅歌老师和高手同学们,cco/ccj 跌了好多,能帮忙分析一下吗?谢谢! - Wuhong, 2017-02-01
- 今天公布的消息是实质性的坏消息:(
TEPCO has issued a termination notice for a uranium supply contract with Cameco Inc., BUT cco do not accept
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cameco-rejects-tepcos-uranium-contract-120000090.html - VQ, 2017-02-01
- 前几天爆跌后回拉买进的话可能踩到地雷了。
不过这家公司财大气粗......... - VQ, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢!这只股值得趁低继续买入吗? - Wuhong, 2017-02-01
- 最好不要接!这种失去大客户的情况,影响盈利是长久性的!买金属铀的客户本就不多!不适合捡便宜! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师! - Wuhong, 2017-02-01
- 对,看来最近放量震荡是在出货。原以为在洗盘 - VQ, 2017-02-01
- 最好不要接!这种失去大客户的情况,影响盈利是长久性的!买金属铀的客户本就不多!不适合捡便宜! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢!这只股值得趁低继续买入吗? - Wuhong, 2017-02-01
- 前几天爆跌后回拉买进的话可能踩到地雷了。
不过这家公司财大气粗......... - VQ, 2017-02-01
- 今天公布的消息是实质性的坏消息:(
TEPCO has issued a termination notice for a uranium supply contract with Cameco Inc., BUT cco do not accept
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cameco-rejects-tepcos-uranium-contract-120000090.html - VQ, 2017-02-01
- 俺觉得Transportation, Mining, Retail, Restaurant等板块近期的表现不会太好,是MM抛售和做空的对象!经济成长缓慢对这四个板块影响最快最大! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 另外银行股,生药股,俺觉得已经到顶,应该往下走了! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师,又进了一点labd - 傻妞, 2017-02-01
- 我也加了labd. - hust1986, 2017-02-01
- 我在wholesale,觉得可能还得等一个季度(从业绩看)。节日季节零售和批发猛推,应该差强人意。 - Obamalin8, 2017-02-01
- 另外请老师帮忙看一下PCLN.前两天1600的时候空了一点。觉得按川普的政策旅游这块怎么也好不了。但是不知道第四季度如何。是不是该15号前先出来一下。 - Obamalin8, 2017-02-01
- 空得好!应该不用,1500元以下可以平仓! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 另外银行股,生药股,俺觉得已经到顶,应该往下走了! - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 关于钢铁:
While U.S. Steel doesn't produce the spiral weld pipes being used in the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipeline projects, it does make components that go into the production of very large diameter pipelines.
Trump's mandate to use American-made steel comes at a time when some manufacturers are already struggling with the rising cost of raw steel, thanks to efforts aimed at preventing foreign countries from dumping cheap supplies in the North American market. - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 老师, 这是否暗示 X 要涨尼? - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- US Steel(X)刚好名字符合政治正确,被当作US Steel's enterprises( 美国钢铁企业), 被华尔街炒高。其实X并没有生产Keystone XL Pipeline使用的油管,是乌龙事件! 当然,X未来可以调整生产线,生产需要的钢管。不过,这是需要时间和模具的。 - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 谢谢老师耐心解答。 惭愧, X 没有守到今天, 上个星期抛的。 守到今天, 30.88 卖出我就不亏了。 没定力呀。 以后改进。 - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- X很volatile,我今天在32Xx也出了大部分!只有一小部分还在:)要守住真不易 - 如歌如水, 2017-02-01
- 从28 33 35 37 39一路空下来,收获颇丰。多谢! - algo, 2017-02-01
- 好身手 - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- 请教你是怎么操作的呢?是阶段性的short一批cover一批,还是分阶段short几批,然后到了一定价位再开始COVER呢? - 月月, 2017-02-01
- US Steel(X)刚好名字符合政治正确,被当作US Steel's enterprises( 美国钢铁企业), 被华尔街炒高。其实X并没有生产Keystone XL Pipeline使用的油管,是乌龙事件! 当然,X未来可以调整生产线,生产需要的钢管。不过,这是需要时间和模具的。 - 雅歌, 2017-02-01
- 老师, 这是否暗示 X 要涨尼? - lantian99, 2017-02-01
- 雅歌老师早安 同学们早 - 玘坧, 2017-02-01