心灵客栈 - 网站新的dashboard http://xlkezhan.com/forum/ zh_CN 网站新的dashboard (reply) <p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/WumAsvdQYwq9gaO4vACEdmhPD6gabg.jpeg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=575050 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=575050 Sat, 28 Mar 2020 10:31:36 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
2020 最新链接,重新录制的免费网课。先注册 https://www.reallifetrading.com/beginner-trading-course 然后在dashboard 选初级,中级,高级课程,都是免费的。周末愉快! (reply) http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=575049 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=575049 Sat, 28 Mar 2020 10:29:22 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj 微信入群 (reply) 新东老师,可以拉我入群吗?微信号jniu10215<img src='/forum/emoji/1f61d.png' class='emotion2_emoji' />

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=574477 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=574477 Thu, 19 Mar 2020 16:59:53 +0000 谈股论金 happycow
Are you guilty of these 4 bad trading behaviors? (reply) https://www.cnbc.com/advertorial/2018/02/26/are-you-guilty-of-these-4-bad-trading-behaviors.html?sr_source=lift_polar&mvt=i&mvn=ce12d8675bef4dfc909852b7b66723a4&mvp=NA-CNBC-11239420&mvl=+%5BLegacy+Homepages%5D

When it comes to investing, everybody hates mistakes — like losing money on a bad investment or cashing out before the market rebounds. However, the stakes are even higher for traders, who buy and sell far more frequently than long-haul investors, and whose trading accounts may not be as diversified as, say, a retirement portfolio.
Here are some of the most widespread behavioral biases I've witnessed among active traders — and my advice for overcoming each.
1. Loss aversion

The average person feels the pain of financial loss twice as much as he or she does the pleasure from financial gain1 — and traders are no different. The trick, then, is not to avoid loss but to manage it. Before you initiate any trade, decide how far you're willing to let the stock drift before you sell. All things being equal, you want your winners to earn double to triple the amount you're willing to sacrifice on your losers.
This is where so-called bracket orders can help. By placing limit orders for both profits and losses, you can mitigate the natural inclination to exit your profitable positions too soon and maintain your losing positions too long. For example, say you bought XYZ Corp. at $50 per share. With a bracket order, you can set a stop-loss order at $48 and an exit-limit order at $55. That way, the most you're risking is $2 per share, while maintaining a profit potential of $5 per share — an approach that theoretically allows you to accumulate more losses than gains and still come out ahead. (See "Breaking down bracket orders," below.)

Breaking down bracket orders
A trader purchasing 100 shares of XYZ Corp. at $50 per share sets an exit-limit order and a stop-loss order; this so-called bracket order allows for a potential gain that's two-and-a-half times the potential loss.

2. Revenge trading
When a trade is going against you, you may be tempted to try countering those losses by doubling or tripling down as the stock continues to drop — something known as revenge trading. But it can take months or even years for such a stock to recover — if it recovers at all — and that's much too long for most traders to hold a losing position. Worse, you increase the odds that an already bad trade will turn catastrophic.
So what's a trader to do? Make sure you identify in advance how much you're willing to lose with each trade — no more than 1 percent to 2 percent of your total trading capital, all things being equal. That means a trader with $50,000 on hand shouldn't risk more than $1,000 on any single transaction.
3. Shirking the blame
Although it's natural to blame losses on outside forces instead of our own oversights, it sets us up for further failure down the road. The solution lies in an impartial grading mechanism that tells you how strong your performance truly is. (See "Test your strength," below.)
Comparing your trading portfolio to a benchmark or group of benchmarks is another way to go. The most widely used stock market benchmark is the S&P 500® Index, but it isn't always the best gauge of an individual's trading portfolio. If you consistently fall short, it may be time to revisit your strategy or seek out the help of a professional.
4. Negativity
The length of the current bull market has plenty of traders convinced of its imminent collapse, despite all evidence to the contrary. So do your homework, and if a longtime trend still appears to have legs, let your winners run. Even if the market turns against you, your stop-loss orders and other risk-management strategies can help protect your downside — before you pivot your portfolio to take advantage of the correction.
Go-to guardrails
Five tips for trading smart.
Limit your losses: Identify in advance how much you're willing to lose with each trade—no more than 1 percent to 2 percent of your total trading capital, all things being equal.
Overweight your winners: Generally speaking, you want your winners to earn double to triple the amount you're willing to sacrifice on your losers — by setting an exit-limit order at two to three times your stop-loss, for example.
Go your own way: If, after doing your homework, a longtime trend still appears to have legs, let your winners run — however contrary to conventional wisdom.
Measure your progress: Schwab clients can compare their portfolios' risk and return to a benchmark or group of benchmarks using Schwab's Portfolio Risk & Return tool (schwab.com/riskandreturn).*
Test your strength:Schwab clients enrolled in Schwab Trading Services can use the Gain/Loss Analyzer (schwab.com/analyzertool),† shown below, to accurately gauge their performance.† It reveals not only a trader's average gain and loss but also the ratio of gains to losses.
Source: Schwab.com.
*After logging in, select Portfolio Performance from the Accounts page, then select Risk & Return under the Rate of Return tab.
†After logging in, select Trade Source under the Trade tab and look for Gain/Loss Analyzer in the column at right.

Lou Mercer, CMT, is a trading solutions regional manager at Schwab Trading Services.
1Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2, 1979.
†After logging in, select Trade Source under the Trade tab and look for Gain/Loss Analyzer in the column at right.

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=537643 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=537643 Fri, 11 Jan 2019 15:54:52 +0000 谈股论金 雅歌
多谢!原文链接和图表在此。https://www.zhihu.com/question/30793521 (reply) https://www.zhihu.com/question/30793521

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=527422 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=527422 Thu, 06 Dec 2018 22:30:49 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
<!--html--><span style="color:red;">ZT:Manage risk with covered calls and covered puts</span> (reply) While some options strategies can be risky, covered calls and covered puts can help you potentially increase profits and limit losses.
It's a common misunderstanding that all options trading strategies are risky, complicated and suitable only for speculators. While this is true for some options strategies, many strategies — such as covered calls and covered puts — can be used to hedge and help minimize the risks of trading. In fact, when employed correctly, covered calls and covered puts can potentially increase profits and limit losses simultaneously. Let's find out how.
Covered calls: Long stock position and short calls in equal quantity

Covered calls, one of the most common and popular option strategies, can be a great way to generate income in a flat or mildly uptrending market. A covered call is when you own the underlying stock and then sell someone the right to buy the stock if the strike price is reached before expiration.
Covered calls also offer limited risk protection. The protection is confined to the amount of premium received, but this can sometimes be enough to offset modest price swings in the underlying equity.

A covered-call writer typically has a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. In many cases, the best time to sell covered calls is either when establishing a long equity position (buy/write), or once the equity position has already begun to move in your favor.
When creating a covered-call position, it is generally best to sell options with a strike price equal to or greater than the price you paid for the equity. If you sell out-of-the-money calls and the stock remains flat, declines in value or even increases a little, the calls will likely expire worthless and you'll get to keep the premium you received when you sold them, with no further obligation. If you sell at-the-money calls, and the stock declines in value, the options will expire worthless with essentially the same result. Once that happens, you can do it all over again for another month.
If the stock appreciates in value to slightly above the strike price, you'll probably have your stock called away at the strike price, either prior to or at expiration. This is not a bad thing. If you sold at-the-money or out-of-the-money calls, the trade will generally be profitable, and the profit will usually exceed what you would have made by buying the stock and selling it at the appreciated price.
Here's a hypothetical example of a covered-call trade. Let's assume you:
Buy 1,000 shares of XYZ stock @ 72
Sell 10 XYZ Apr 75 calls @ 2
Because you bring in two points for the covered call, it provides two points of immediate downside protection. In other words, you will not have a loss unless the stock drops below $70.
But there's always a downside, and in this example the trade-off is that you limit the upside profit potential beyond a price of $77. So you would only want to do this if you think the price of XYZ will not exceed $77 by the April expiration. If XYZ does increase above $77, the stock purchase alone would have been more profitable.
Look at the profit and loss chart below. Notice that:
The breakeven price is $70.
The profit is capped at $5,000 for all prices above $75, i.e.:
$3 x 1,000[shares stock] + $2 x 10[options contracts] x 100[options multiplier]
The stock can drop two points before you go into the red. Losses will be incurred below $70 to zero.
Losses could be as much as $70,000 if the stock price drops to zero, but they will always be $2,000 less than the stock trade alone.

Note: Chart depicts strategy at expiration.
Covered puts: Short stock, short puts in equal quantity
Covered puts work essentially the same way as covered calls, except that the underlying equity position is a short instead of a long stock position, and the option sold is a put rather than a call.
A covered-put writer typically has a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. Selling covered puts against a short equity position creates an obligation to buy the stock back at the strike price of the put option.
Just like with covered calls, the best time to sell covered puts can be either at the same time a short equity position is established (sell/write), or once the short equity position has already begun to move in your favor.
Here's a hypothetical example of a covered-put trade. Let's assume you:
Sell short 1000 shares of XYZ @ 72
Sell 10 XYZ Apr 70 puts @ 2
Take a look at the profit and loss chart below. Notice that:
The breakeven price is $74.
The profit is capped at $4,000 for all prices below 70, i.e.:
$2 x 1,000[shares stock] + $2 x 10[options contracts] x 100[options multiplier]
Even though there are two points of price protection against an increase in the stock price, losses will be incurred above $74.
Losses could be unlimited if the stock price continues to increase, but they will always be $2,000 less than the stock trade alone.
You would want to employ this strategy only if you think the price of XYZ will not fall below $70 by the April expiration. If XYZ does fall below $70, the short stock trade alone would be more profitable.

Note: Chart depicts strategy at expiration.
Be careful
While covered calls and covered puts limit risk somewhat, they cannot eliminate it entirely. With that in mind, here are a few cautionary points about these strategies:
Profits. Covered options usually prevent significant profit potential if a stock moves substantially in your favor. Anytime you sell a covered option, you have established a minimum buying price (covered put) or maximum selling price (covered call) for your stock. Any stock movement beyond that established price creates no additional profit for you.
Losses. Losses are limited only by the amount of premium you received on the initial sale of the option. In addition, it is rarely a good idea to sell a covered option if your stock position has already moved significantly against you. Doing so could cause you to establish a closing price that ensures a loss. So before you sell, ask yourself, "Would I be happy if I had to close out my stock position at the strike price on this option?" If you can answer "yes," you will probably be OK.
Holding until expiration. While our examples assume that you hold the covered position until expiration, you can usually close out a covered option at any time by buying it to close at the current market price. Regardless of whether the equity part of your strategy is profitable or not, waiting until expiration will maximize your return on an out-of-the-money option; however, you are not required to do so.
Assignment. A significant change in the price of the underlying stock prior to expiration could result in an early assignment, and if your short option is in-the-money, you could be assigned at any time. Covered calls written against dividend paying stocks are especially vulnerable to early assignment.
Corporate events. When companies merge, spin off, split, pay special dividends, etc., their options can become very complicated. The StreetSmart Edge® trading platform has detailed information regarding the terms of adjusted options; please review it carefully before you trade them.

https://www.cnbc.com/advertorial/2018/05/10/manage-risk-with-covered-calls-and-covered-puts.html?sr_source=lift_polar&mvt=i&mvn=ad40f7e408404424999b37e08a5e2933&mvp=NA-CNBC-11239420&mvl=+%5BLegacy+Homepages%5D

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=516202 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=516202 Wed, 31 Oct 2018 17:50:48 +0000 谈股论金 雅歌
A Textbook Example Of A Dividend Machine - REITs (reply) Seeking Alpha Article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4210818-textbook-example-dividend-machine?isDirectRoadblock=true

A Textbook Example Of A Dividend Machine
Brad Thomas
(58,037 followers)
Oct. 10, 2018 7:00 AM ET

Summary
*I am going to provide you with a textbook example of a “dividend machine” and one of the most powerful “sleep well at night” investments in the REIT sector.
*Realty Income is viewed as a bond-like REIT, the company does generate very stable and predictable dividend growth.
*The shares have underperformed year to date, due in large part to interest rate fears.
*This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Intelligent REIT Investor. Start your free trial today »


As many of you know, in my early days and before I became a dedicated REIT writer, I was a real estate developer. One of my first clients was Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP), and I scouted for the southeastern U.S. looking for outparcels to construct stores for the auto parts chain.

I suppose my fixation to the net lease sector was rooted in the simplicity of the “sleep well at night” income that net lease properties generate. For over a decade, I began to construct a portfolio of properties leased to companies such as CVS Health Corp., Eckerd Drug (now Rite Aid), Blockbuster Video, Econo Lube n’ Tune, Outback, KFC, Red Lobster and Barnes & Noble.

Many of the companies on the list are no longer in business, and one of the many lessons learned over the years - as a developer and analyst - is to maintain adequate diversification. All businesses are cyclical, and as an investor for over 25 years, I have gained valuable insight into the concept of managing risk.

Howard Marks wrote, “Investing is a matter of preparing for the financial future. It’s simple to define the task: we assemble portfolios today that we hope will benefit from the events that unfold in the years ahead.”

I just began reading Marks’ new book, Mastering The Market Cycle, and I can’t wait to finish reading it on my four-hour bus ride to Ithaca tomorrow, where I am lecturing at Cornell. He explains in the book, “Calibrating one’s portfolio is what this book is mostly about.”

That’s a great lead into my article today, and I can assure you, I am not writing about my success as a net lease developer. Believe me, I have had my share of winners and losers.

Instead, I am going to provide you with a textbook example (fitting for my Cornell lecture) of a “dividend machine,” a company that has successfully calibrated its portfolio for over two decades that has resulted in one of the most powerful “sleep well at night” investments in the REIT sector.

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/pZT8CMwIpYRfIl5zOZSBAIGrcB7YGz.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>
(Source: Rhino Real Estate Advisors)

The Making Of A Dividend Machine

According to Wikipedia, Realty Income (NYSE:O) was founded in 1969 by William E. Clark and Evelyn J. Clark. The couple acquired their first free-standing net lease property, a Taco Bell restaurant, in early 1970.

Initially, they focused on acquiring properties from their development company which engaged in land acquisition, construction, leasing and sales of fast food restaurant properties.

When they founded the company in 1969, the Clarks, who are now retired in Dana Point, bought stores that required real estate to function, such as restaurants, fitness clubs and movie theaters - all companies that need a store front to exist.

They bought the land with cash and then leased it back to their operators under long-term deals that ensured a steady 8-8.5% rate of return but left the operators responsible for insurance, maintenance, and taxes.

Over the years, Realty Income has evolved into a massive net lease REIT with 5,483 properties located in 49 states and Puerto Rico.

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/9s2f3gDTMbnzUHf4GNby2AaV3yKN3w.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

It’s hard to fathom how much Realty Income has grown over the years, from one Taco Bell site to over 5,400 properties. The company now has incredible scale well-diversified by tenant, industry, geography, and - to a certain extent - property type. No tenant represents more than 6.6% of revenue:

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/Xkuw2cpg8YFnUdsSbNtZmBqhbSyJdE.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

The REIT’s top 20 tenants are highly insulated from changing consumer behavior. Nineteen of these top 20 tenants fall into at least one category (service, non-discretionary, low-price point retail or non-retail):

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/9pJJItYJ4yZqR2RQ81aFsbGHi0zIax.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

Clearly, Realty Income has “mastered the market cycle,” as illustrated below. The portfolio today is less cyclical with superior credit and diversification versus the prior downturn in 2008-2009:

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/KIR2rOvr13YcfXS8lNbaKggiueaKIU.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

I was scanning Realty Income’s 2008 Annual Report and I ran across this quote from the company’s former CEO, Tom Lewis:

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/I7k9kCMIS5ClakCJvbq9bZF4btHVvo.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

All but 13 REITs managed to increase their dividend in 2008-2009, and Realty Income is on that list. Here’s a snapshot of the company’s dividend performance over the decades:

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/74ccR5gRzXg2z8znt3Ot8HYL9B5n71.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

In Realty Income’s 2009 Annual Report, its CEO said:

We increased the amount of the monthly dividend four times during 2009. Dividends paid per common share increased 2.7%... we also note that we were able to increase the dividend in a year when 103 companies in our industry had to cut or suspend their dividend.”

Lewis went on to explain:

“While our mission and business plan have not changed, the economic and business environment is constantly evolving, which brings new challenges to the execution of the Company’s plans. We’ve run up against inflation in the ‘70s and ‘80s, easy credit, tight credit, the threat of deflation, the threat of inflation again, the real estate bubble of the 2000s, and the “great recession” of 2008 and 2009.

Each of these economic challenges has posed a threat to some aspect of our overall business at various times during the past 40 years. But by having a conservative, long-term plan, we knew where to focus our efforts in order to maintain occupancy, increase revenue, and increase the monthly dividend.”

The Balance Sheet Gets Stronger And Stronger
Realty Income’s credit rating was recently increased by one of the three major credit rating companies, Standard & Poor’s. And this upgrade puts O in a special class of just nine REITs with a strong rating of A- or better. Here’s this list of “A” students, as per S&P:

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/sOhMIJHcyS2EdD4uKP00PQenWEH3mM.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

As S&P reported, “The upgrade reflects the company's highly consistent track record of strong operating performance and demonstrated commitment to fund acquisitions conservatively - largely with equity - and to maintain relatively stable credit metrics.”

Now, in addition to raising the issuer credit rating to "A-" from "BBB+," S&P’s outlook on O is “stable.” This means, “[they expect] Realty Income's highly diversified asset portfolio will continue to show above average stability... [to] allow the company to maintain debt to EBITDA in the mid-to-high-5x area over the next couple of years as it funds growth prudently with a healthy combination of cash flow from operations, equity, and debt.”

And along with the credit ratings increase, S&P raised its issue-level rating on the company's senior unsecured debt to "A-." As icing on the cake, S&P reported, “the upgrade reflects our view of Realty Income as the benchmark within the net-lease space.”

All of this means great things for investors who hold Realty Income and investors who are considering it. However, it is likely bad news for investors who misidentified Realty Income’s competence or considered any particular analysis that came up short.

S&P’s capsule: O is “the largest net-lease REIT with a $22 billion market capitalization and a $15.7 billion portfolio of single-tenant, freestanding, net-lease properties. The company focuses on service-oriented and value-focused retail tenants, all of which are less exposed than traditional retailers to e-commerce threats (as demonstrated by less than 1% exposure to retailers that underwent bankruptcy over the last 18 months).”

The stalwart REIT continues to maintain a conservative capital structure. During Q2-18, Realty Income issued $300 million of common stock primarily through its ATM program. The weighted average maturity of bonds is now 9.2 years, and the overall debt maturity schedule remains in excellent shape, with only $8.5 million of debt coming due in the remainder of 2018 and only $91 million coming due in 2019 outside of the revolver.

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/7iY5bQgefkGRk0p6fTvezTU5YkNv9v.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

Realty Income’s overall leverage remains modest, as the debt-to-EBITDA ratio is currently 5.5x and the fixed charge coverage ratio remains healthy at 4.6x. The REIT continues to have low leverage, excellent liquidity and strong coverage metrics. It has approximately $1.1 billion available on its line of credit, excluding the accordion feature. Including the accordion, the company has about $2 billion of capacity on the revolver.

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/bAxmh0mxZcEbiNWKxSyKSs7kHTagpy.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

The Dividend Machine Is Hitting All-Cylinders

In Q2-18, Realty Income’s investment spreads relative to its weighted average cost of capital were healthy, averaging approximately 151 basis points, which were above the historical average spreads. (The company defines investment spreads as an initial cash yield, less nominal first-year weighted average cost of capital.)

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/jFFHoXwnThKmQspTRLeM1L2V2e72Sx.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

The WACC viewpoint balances near-term earnings per share growth with long-term value accretion, and as viewed below, low cost of capital is the most important competitive advantage in the net lease industry because it allows Realty Income to acquire the highest-quality assets in the net lease industry:

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/dQL3ZHQ2GqxA5CIznijqCz0Vu6IfoV.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

In Q2-18, Realty Income completed $347 million acquisitions at a 6.5% cap rate, and investment spreads were consistent with the company’s long-term average. Around 52% of the rental revenue generated from these investments is from investment grade-rated tenants, and overall, the company continues to see a steady flow of opportunities that meet investment parameters.

Realty Income remains one of the only publicly-traded net lease REITs that have the scale and cost of capital to pursue large corporate sale-leaseback transactions on a negotiated basis.

Year to date, the company has sourced approximately $17 billion in potential transaction opportunities. Of these opportunities, 60% of the volumes sourced was portfolios and 40%, or approximately $7 billion, was in one-off assets. Investment grade opportunities represented 24% for Q2-18. Of the $347 million in acquisitions closed, 25% were one-off transactions.

Given the continued strength and visibility in the investment pipeline and the current market environment, Realty Income is increasing 2018 acquisitions guidance to approximately $1.75 billion from the prior range of $1-1.5 billion.

This Machine Spits Out Dividends In Its Sleep

In Q2-18, Realty Income’s funds from operation (FFO) per share was $0.79 for the quarter. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) or the actual cash available for distribution as dividends was $0.80 per share for the quarter, representing a 5.3% increase.

Realty Income recently increased the dividend for the 97th time in its history. The current annualized dividend represents a 4% increase over the year-ago period. The company has increased its dividend every year since listing in 1994, growing the dividend at a compound average annual rate of 4.7%. Realty Income is one of only five REITs in the S&P High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index.

Note: To qualify for membership in the index, at each annual reconstitution a stock must satisfy the following criteria: 1.) Be a member of the S&P 500. 2.) Have increased total dividend per share amount every year for at least 25 consecutive years. 3.) Have a minimum float-adjusted market capitalization (FMC) of at least US$3 billion as of the rebalancing reference date. 4. Have an average daily value traded (ADVT) of at least US$5 million for the three-months prior to the rebalancing reference date.

Given the momentum in the business, Realty Income increased the range of 2018 AFFO per share guidance from $3.14-3.20 to $3.16-3.21. Here’s a snapshot of the company’s AFFO per share from 2011-2018 (Note: CAGR during that period is 6.9%):

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/s3eE5Mv6rg4ptfQaTQPV9CjXzPOfX1.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

Since going public, Realty Income has generated compound average annual dividend growth of approximately 4.7% and total dividend growth of 193.3% (as of August 1, 2018). During the same period referenced above (2011-2018), it generated CAGR dividend growth of 6.3%.

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/8yzQNzmEhtw6YoBTOAbmYU9NZb6YE4.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

The company has paid over $5.5 billion in dividends. As can be seen below, Realty Income’s compound average annual return is 15.8% since listing shares in 1994.

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/cZWq80lB96m6YDXdjfYq2fi9BbbtUr.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

Own A Piece Of This Dividend Machine

Now, let’s examine Realty Income’s dividend yield compared with the peers:

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/olActpJs6FjoKxCl3Ew8C8M31Mm2aI.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

Let’s examine the P/FFO multiple:

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/uVeaAyUBtlEKVtw0vnyyd5fhll85Sh.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

Realty Income shares have underperformed year to date, due in large part to interest rate fears. Although it is viewed as a bond-like REIT, the company does generate very stable and predictable dividend growth. As noted, Realty Income has continued to evolve its portfolio with “less cyclical” and “higher credit-rated” tenants. That stability can be reflected in its very stable and reliable occupancy history.

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/RGA3DPI6CbPp5u4xhblpBY5CMnn1gV.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

It’s always valuable to reflect on a company’s historical relevance, and I will conclude these remarks from Realty Income’s 2005 Annual Report:

“The philosophy of The Monthly Dividend Company is, quite simply, to provide all of its shareholders with increasing monthly dividends every month, year after year, for the rest of their lives. This philosophy, simple as it may sound, colors every decision the Company makes, dollar it spends, its management discussions, and all of the employee’s activities undertaken each day at Realty Income.”

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/ejlYPGAiCIi456NFCzJcZpyFeYKaaY.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

Note: I will be guest lecturing at Cornell today and will not be available to reply until this afternoon.

Disclosure: I am/we are long ACC, APLE, AVB, BHR, BPY, BRX, BXMT, CCI, CIO, CLDT, CONE, CORR, CTRE, CXP, CUBE, DEA, DLR, DOC, EPR, EQIX, ESS, EXR, FRT, GDS, GEO, GMRE, GPT, HASI, HT, HTA, INN, IRET, IRM, JCAP, KIM, KREF, KRG, LADR, LAND, LMRK, LTC, MNR, MPW, NNN, NXRT, O, OFC, OHI, OUT, PEB, PEI, PK, PSB, PTTTS, QTS, REG, RHP, RLJ, ROIC, SBRA, SKT, SPG, SRC, STAG, STOR, TCO, TRTX, UBA, UMH, UNIT, VER, VICI, VNO, VNQ, VTR, WPC.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

=======================================================
87418 people have O in their portfolio and get alerts

richjoy403
Comments18360 | + Follow
Brad -- Agreed.
Mr. Market goes up, and he goes down; and stocks & REITs periodically become over- and under-valued.
Nothing is forever, but for the foreseeable future, Realty Income has earned its place in my Core Portfolio.
Rich-unck:12hrs
10 Oct 2018, 07:13 AM Reply1Like

FLJ2061
Comments39 | + Follow
Hi Brad - if you were going to build a dividend machine portfolio what would be in it?
Based on all the stocks in your disclosure?
10 Oct 2018, 07:38 AM Reply1Like

Biological
Comments3921 | + Follow
O is not a machine but, in fact, many, many efficient machines...all well built and lubricated and working in different locations, 24/7.
10 Oct 2018, 07:47 AM Reply0Like

jansdirk
Comments65 | + Follow
For additional revenues I do write put options almost every quarter.
10 Oct 2018, 07:58 AM Reply0Like

bob_va
Comments189 | + Follow
Thanks for sharing an outstanding article on an outstanding REIT!
Love those growing monthly dividends!
10 Oct 2018, 08:05 AM Reply0Like

billinsd
Comments3375 | + Follow
Brad,
My second largest holding 1403 shares,and one of my favorite companies to talk about.
I do my best to attend the annual shareholder meeting
Those divvy checks come like clockwork and keep me traveling.
O is a retired investors best friend.
Hope all is well my friend
10 Oct 2018, 08:09 AM

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=510784 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=510784 Wed, 10 Oct 2018 13:05:09 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
<!--html--><span style="color:brown;font-size:20px;">亚历山大·埃尔德博士和《以交易为生》</span> (reply) 亚历山大·埃尔德博士和《以交易为生》

亚历山大·埃尔德博士出生于前列宁格勒(今天的彼得堡),生长在爱沙尼亚。16岁上大学,22岁医学院毕业。他向往自由,不愿受约束。完成一年住院实习,便去轮船上当随行医生。在非洲象牙海岸最大的港口都市Abidjan,他见机跳船,跑到美国大使馆申请政治避难。1974年2月,辗转来到美国纽约。当时,他随身只有几件非洲带来的夏季衣服,25美金,会讲一些英语,但在美国举目无亲。当年的苏联,仅仅持有几张美钞就足以让人在西伯利亚劳改三年,所以,他更不会知道何为股票、债券、期货或期权。

1976年夏天,他驱车从纽约开往加利福尼亚。沿途在风景优美的国家公园露营,顺便读了律师朋友借给他的书,恩格尔的《如何买股票》。他被这本不起眼的书深深吸引,从而改变了人生轨迹。回到纽约,他马上买了生平第一只股票 - KinderCare。

学习股票交易是一个漫长的过程,他经历过成功的喜悦和失败的沮丧,若干次交易账户几乎归零,不得不重新回到医院工作,积累资本, 这样周而复始。同时,他的交易也在逐渐进步。他大量阅读,反复思考、测试,然后又开始交易。但真正的突破拐点要等到他焕然大悟的那天:原来交易成功的关键不在电脑中,而是取决于人的大脑。交易心理素质至关重要!

埃尔德博士在纽约当过精神病医生,专业杂志编辑,还曾在纽约哥伦比亚大学教授心理学课程。他的经历和经验,使他对交易心理学有独到的见解。作为全球领先的交易专家,他出版了16本著作,包括闻名全球的畅销书 《以交易为生》(https://amzn.to/2NajR0h)和《走进我的交易室》(https://amzn.to/2x0CxW5 荣获美国Barron's巴伦周刊2002年度最佳图书)。在美国,他第一个发起了交易训练营(Traders' Camp),专门培训交易者。他还创办了选股高手Spike集团,专业和半专业的交易成员每周分享自己看好的股票,赢者胜出,获得奖金。

埃尔德博士目前仍从事交易,并为交易者组织网络研讨会。他是一位颇受欢迎的演讲者,最近一次大型公开课是在芝加哥的 TradersEXPO.

The TradersEXPO Chicago | Homepage
https://conferences.moneyshow.com/tradersexpo-chicago
We are thrilled to announce The TradersEXPO will be headed to Chicago at the Hyatt Regency McCormick Place, July 22-24, 2018! ... Alexander Elder ...
Finding "A-Trades" and Managing Them (Part 1)*
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/GPJloojfK0fv7EnoYyJrkYPzbN1xpF.jpg" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>
July 22, 2018, 1:30 pm - 4:30 pm
Every private trader has to handle two tasks. First, you need to analyze markets to find opportunities. Next, you need to enter, manage, and exit trades. These jobs demand different skills, which is why trading firms assign them to different people. Companies split these tasks between analysts and traders--but you have to perform both jobs. Most traders mix them up, with poor results.

简短煽情的开场

《以交易为生》的开场白,寥寥数语描述了成功交易者的生活,简洁却不失煽情,两年前第一次读到,我便动心了。

You can be free. You can live and work anywhere in the world. You can be independent from routine and not answer to anybody.
This is the life of a successful trader.
你是自由的,你可以生活和工作在世界任何一个角落。你不必受日常事务约束或向任何人汇报。
这就是成功交易者的生活写照。

其实这段话也可以延伸到向往财富自由、希望早日退休者梦寐以求的生活。我的朋友年前退休,夫妻俩的退休金(pension,不是401k之类)旱涝保收每年有十多万美元,加上便宜优质的医疗保险几乎全保,所以生活滋润,后顾无忧,令人羡慕。朋友的短信原话:I haven't missed my job even once. Retirement rocks...

直指人心的问题

Do You Really Want to Succeed?

在正文开始之前,埃尔德博士提出了一个发人深省的问题:你真的想成功吗?随后,他举了一个例子。朋友的妻子嚷嚷着节食,吃减肥餐多年,效果甚微,依旧肥胖。她在众人面前拒绝触碰蛋糕或土豆,却躲在厨房里大快朵颐。对她来说,短暂的口福带来的满足,远胜过瘦身之后的健康效益。

想必我们很多人都感同身受,要减肥但管不住嘴,希望变成遵守纪律的成功交易员,却不断冲动交易,享受市场赌博带来的短暂刺激,乐此不彼。人们往往是短视的,不喜欢束缚,因此,倾向于及时行乐,忽视有规律地生活、交易带来的滞后的长远利益。然而,冲动的、情绪化的交易早晚会给你致命的一击,正如肥胖超重终将伴随着高血压、高血脂、高血糖等恼人的疾病。

To be or not to be, that is the question. 生存或者毁灭,这是一个值得思考的问题。(莎士比亚)

时刻告诫自己是个loser

埃尔德博士在书中将交易失败者比作酒鬼,通俗易懂,直达痛处。参见精华文摘如下:

酗酒者和赔钱的交易者有一点十分相似:酗酒者试图把烈性酒换为啤酒来解决问题,而赔钱的交易者总是在不断地变化交易技巧,否认自己对交易失去了控制。

酗酒者必须承认自己不能节制饮酒,而失败的交易者必须承认自己不能节制亏损,是自己的心理障碍导致亏损。对于酗酒互助会的成员,第一个纠正步骤是当众承认:“我不能驾驭酒精。”而对于失败的交易者,第一步则是清醒认识到:“我是输家,我不能驾驭亏损。”

当你承认自身存在的问题导致赔钱时,你就能开始建立全新的交易生活,开始设计赢家的纪律。

交易者可以采用酗酒互助会的方法进行康复。康复中的酗酒者将尽可能保持清醒,one day at a time每次一天。交易者必须尽可能尝试没有损失的交易,one day at a time每次一天。

你或许会说,这完全不可能。如果我买进而价格立即下跌,怎么办?或者,万一我在最低点放空,这又怎么办?即使是最顶尖的好手,有时候也会发生亏损。你必须在合理的风险与不合理的损失之间划一条界线。一位交易者必须承担合理的风险,但绝对不允许发生预定风险之外的损失。

只有资产不断增长,才能证明一个人的交易能力。人们往往在一次大的盈利或一连串盈利后变得骄傲自满、大乐失察。实际上,交易是一件如履薄冰的事,骄傲自满迟早会让利润回吐。

异曲同工,据说台湾期货交易高手“刀疤老二”每隔几天就会在交易日记中写上一句:“我是新手,我要小心”。想当初,刚开始投资,每个股票做了多少功课,读了多少报表,才精心选择了各个行业的佼佼者,也获得了不错的成绩。而后来,脑子一热,几分钟就敢下单,尝过一些甜头,便高估了自己的能力。股林高手如云,唯有小心谨慎才是。所以每天入场前,我也要时时提醒自己:我是新手,我会犯错,我要三思而后行, 宁可错过不要跌破。

Stops 停止点

Trading without a stop is like walking down Fifth Avenue in Manhattan without pants on. It can be done, I have seen people do it, but it is not worth the trouble.
交易不设停止点,好比在曼哈顿第五大道上闲逛,但没穿裤子。有人这么做,我也见过,但这种冒险不值得。

多么形象的比喻! 下一次买了股票不设止损,想象一下,自己变成了安徒生童话《皇帝的新衣》里的主角,自以为是、自欺欺人,会不会万分尴尬?

A stop will not protect you from a bad trading system; the best it can do is slow down the damage.
停止点并不能保护你免受错误交易系统的伤害,它最多只能减缓损害。

A stop-loss order limits your risk even though it does not always work. Sometimes prices gap through a stop. A stop is not a perfect tool but it is the best defensive tool we have.
设定停损可以控制你的风险,尽管它未必始终有效。股价有时会跳空穿越你的停损点。停损并不完美,但它是我们最佳的防御工具。

Serious traders place stops the moments they enter a trade. As time passes, stops need to be adjusted to reduce the amount of money at risk or to protect a bigger chunk of profit. Stops should be moved one way – in the direction of the trade. We all like to hope that a trade will succeed – and a stop is a piece of reality that prevents traders from hanging on to empty hope.
严谨的交易者在进场的同时就会设定停损。随着时间的推移,需要调整停损点以降低风险资金或保护已有的盈利。停止点只能朝单一的方向,即交易的走势,移动。我们期望交易能够成功,停止单是阻止交易者不切实际空想的一个现实工具。

Risk Management风险管理

A good trading system delivers greater profits than losses over a period of time, but even the most carefully designed system doesn’t guarantee success in every trade. No system can assure you of never having a losing trade or even a series of losing trades.
一个好的交易系统在一段时间里产生的利润会超过亏损,但即使最精心设计的系统也不能保证每笔交易都能成功。没有系统能向你担保永远不产生一个或者一系列的亏损交易。

The inability to manage losses is one of the worst pitfalls in trading. Beginners freeze like deer in the headlights when a deepening loss starts wiping out profits of many good trades. It’s a general human tendency to take profits quickly but wait for losing trades to come back to even. By the time the despairing amateur gives up hope and closes his trade with a terrible loss, his account is badly and sometimes irreparably damaged.
交易中最为致命的陷阱是缺乏管理损失的能力。面对亏损逐渐吞噬原来赚钱的交易,初学者像车灯强光照射下的小鹿一般惊慌失措、僵直不动。通常,人类的天性使人快速抛出获利的股票,而等待亏损的股票最后回到收支平衡。当绝望的业余交易员放弃等待,以可怕的损失结束交易时,他的账户会变得很糟糕,甚至受到无可挽回的损害。

To be a successful trader, you need to learn risk management rules and firmly implement them.
想成为一名成功的交易者,你必须学会风险管理的规则,并且严格执行。

Whatever method you use, remember to apply the key risk management rule: the distance from your entry to the protective stop, multiplied by position size can never be more than 2 percent of your account equity. No matter how attractive a trade, pass it up if it would require putting more than 2% of your account at risk.
无论你使用何种方法,请记住关键的风险管理规则:你的股票买入价格到你的保护性止损点之间的差价,乘以你的仓位得到的结果,不应该超过你总资金量的2%。不管一个交易有多么吸引人,如果潜在风险超过了投资账户的2%,那就必须放弃。

The absolute maximum a trader may risk on any trade is two percent of his account equity. For example, if you have $30,000 in your account, you may not risk more than $600 per trade, and if you have $10,000, you may not risk more than $200.
交易者在任何交易中所能面临的最大风险是其账户净值的2%。例如,对30,000美元的账户,每笔交易风险不能超过600美元。而10,000美元的账户,每笔风险则不应多于200美元。

If you see an attractive trade, but a logical stop would have to be placed where more than 2 percent of equity would be at risk—pass on that trade. You may risk less, but you may never risk more. You must avoid risking more than 2 percent on a trade the way a recovering alcoholic avoids bars.
如果你发现一个吸引人的的交易机会,但合理停损点的设置会使超过2%的账户资产面临风险,那就放弃交易。在交易中你可以接受小于2%的风险,但绝不能超过。避免接受2%以上的风险,就如同酗酒者避免进入酒吧一样。

三重滤网交易系统

《以交易为生》第9章提出了几套交易系统,重点介绍了三重滤网交易系统(Triple Screen Trading System)。此系统由埃尔德博士设计,自1985年以来,一直运用于实际的交易中。1986年四月份,作者首度在《期货杂志》介绍了这套系统。

对于每笔交易,都需要经过三重的测试或过滤。许多交易机会乍看来不错,结果却被某一层滤网拒绝。如果交易可以通过“三重滤网”的测试,成功的概率会大幅提高。 

1) 第一层滤网是市场的长期趋势(主要趋势),仿佛大海的潮汐(tide)。采用趋势指标如周线MACD柱的倾斜方向来判断市场走势,顺势操作:
i) 当相邻的两根MACD柱向上倾斜时,表明多方占主导,允许买入或观望;
ii) 当相邻的两根MACD柱向下倾斜时,表明空方占主导,允许卖出或观望。

2) 第二层滤网指市场的中期趋势(次级趋势),识别与长期走势逆向的波浪(wave)。在中期图表上运用震荡指标KDJ的超买超卖确定买入卖出点。
i) 当MACD柱上升而KDJ下跌到30以下,表明进入超卖区,是买点;
ii) 当MACD柱下降而KDJ上升到70以上,表明进入超买区,是卖点。

3) 第三层滤网指市场的短期趋势 (日间波动),可以看成片片涟漪(ripple)。具体的买卖在此进行。
i) 当长期趋势上升而中期震荡指标下降而发出买进信号,采用追踪型的停止买单,价位设定在前一天高点之上一档。如果价格上涨,买单自动成交。否则,没有交易。
ii) 当长期趋势下降而中期震荡指标上升而发出卖出信号,采用追踪型的停止卖单,价位设定在前一天低点之下一档。一旦市场掉头,卖单自动成交。否则,没有交易。

一旦成交就要挂止损单,因为三重滤网交易系统只顺趋势操作,所以止损可以设置的很窄,在前一天低点(或高点)下方(或上方)即可。

“三重滤网”同时采用几种顺势的方法和逆势的技巧,由不同时间架构来分析潜在的交易机会。 它不仅是一个交易系统,也是一套方法和操作风格,可以指导普通交易者学习建立适合自己的交易系统。

写交易日志

Memory is the cornerstone of civilized life. It allows us to learn from our successes and even more from our failures. Keeping a diary of your trades will help you grow and become a better trader.

记忆是文明生活的基石。它帮我们从成功中获得经验,而从失败的教训中则学会更多。坚持记录交易有助于你的成长和成为更好的交易员。

The mental baggage from childhood can prevent you from succeeding in the markets. You have to identify your weaknesses and work to change. Keep a trading diary—write down your reasons for entering and exiting every trade. Look for repetitive patterns of success and failure.
孩提时代承受的精神压力会妨碍你在市场上取得成功。你必须找出自己的弱点并努力改变。坚持写交易日记,记下每笔买或卖的理由,从中归纳总结出反复成功或失败的特定模式。

Those who don't learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
那些不会从过去吸取教训的人注定会重蹈覆辙。

You should concentrate on trading right, not on the money.
你应当关注交易的正确性,而不是赚钱与否。

交易日志包括:记录交易日期,每次买卖价位,成交价差,佣金,止损位,止损位的所有调整情况,买入理由,目标价位,最大浮盈,达到止损位后的最大浮亏。
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/T9OwfZqRXAOuJb1rQcf0V0jpXqAYbB.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

七项交易规则

最后,分享埃尔德博士的七项交易规则。

All of us have our own demons to exorcise on the journey to becoming successful traders. Here are several rules that worked for me as I grew from a wild amateur into an erratic semiprofessional and finally into a calm professional trader. You may change this list to suit your personality.

每位交易者在迈向成功的征途中,都必须驱除自己的心魔。下面列出的几项法则曾帮助我从纯粹的门外汉变成半专业的交易者,最后又让我成为真正的专业交易者。你可以根据自己的个性,调整它们的顺序。

1. Decide that you are in the market for the long haul—that is, you want to be a trader even 20 years from now.
下决心长期入市交易,也就是说,即使在20年之后,你仍然想成为一名交易员。

2. Learn as much as you can. Read and listen to experts, but keep a degree of healthy skepticism about everything. Ask questions, and do not accept experts at their word.
尽可能多地学习,阅读和聆听众专家之长,但对任何观点保持一定程度的正常怀疑。提出问题,但不可全盘接受专家们的表面说辞。

3. Do not get greedy and rush to trade—take your time to learn. The markets will be there, offering more good opportunities in the months and years ahead.
不要贪婪,急于交易--多花一些时间学习。市场始终会在那里,在未来的数月和几年内将能提供更多更好的机会。

4. Develop a method for analyzing the market—that is, “If A happens, then B is likely to happen.” Markets have many dimensions—use several analytic methods to confirm trades. Test everything on historical data and then in the markets, using real money. Markets keep changing—you need different tools for trading bull and bear markets and transitional periods as well as a method for telling the difference (see the sections on technical analysis).
发展一套分析市场行情的方法,即“如果A发生,则B很可能发生。”市场有许多层面—所以需要运用多种分析方法来确认交易。每种方法都必须通过历史数据的测试,和真实货币在市场中测试。市场不断变化--你需要不同的交易工具对付多头、空头与过渡行情,以及区分不同行情的方法(参考技术分析的章节)。

5. Develop a money management plan. Your first goal must be long-term survival; your second goal, a steady growth of capital; and your third goal, making high profits. Most traders put the third goal first and are unaware that goals 1 and 2 exist (see Section 9, “Risk Management”).
制定一套资金管理计划。你的第一个目标必须是长期生存;第二个目标是投资资本的稳定成长;第三个目标才是赚取高额利润。许多交易者本末倒置,把第三个目标摆在最前面,不知道还有目标1和2(参考第10章“风险管理”)。

6. Be aware that a trader is the weakest link in any trading system. Go to a meeting of Alcoholics Anonymous to learn how to avoid losses or develop your own method for cutting out impulsive trades.
要意识到,交易者是任何交易系统中最薄弱的环节。参加酗酒者互助会的聚会,学习如何避免损失,或者形成一套自己的方法以避免冲动型交易。 

7. Winners think, feel, and act differently than losers. You must look within yourself, strip away your illusions, and change your old ways of being, thinking, and acting. Change is hard, but if you want to be a professional trader, you have to work on changing and developing your personality.
赢家与输家对市场的思考方式、感觉和所采取的行动截然不同。你必须内省,排除幻想,着手改变旧的思考与行为方式。改变自己十分艰难,但如果想成为一名专业的交易者,你必须着手改变和发展自己的个性。


周末献宝:众里寻他千百度
http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=495557


重温《笑傲股市》

http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=497497

The New Trading for a Living Study Guide - DropPDF
1.droppdf.com/files/ldGa6/trading-for-a-living-2014-study-guide.pdf

Youtube Audiobook: Trading for a Living Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IZVkfnftPBw

]]>
http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=501070 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=501070 Thu, 30 Aug 2018 15:39:50 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
周末献宝:众里寻他千百度 (reply) 众里寻他千百度,那人却在灯火阑珊处。

买股票N年,犯了所有投资或投机者都会犯的错误。多少次,AMD, MOMO, BZUN 的账面浮盈超过一千美元,人心不足蛇吞象,盼望再涨,但没时间盯盘,也没止损,结果转盈为亏。 除了扼腕痛惜,别无他法,只好傻傻地等待下一个周期。 或者是套牢在高点,心灰意冷,等下跌的股票一回本,就迫不及待地抛了,然后眼睁睁看着它一路上涨,甚至翻番。痛定思痛,学习培训,寻寻觅觅,终于找到了一个简单的工具,轻松三步,确认最佳买入或卖出点,迅速止损,让利润奔跑。

最早接触这个网站(链接 https://followthemoney.com/?ref=67),中文可翻成“跟着金钱的流向走”(趋势投资法),是半年前听了采访Chat with Traders Podcast Episode #1,网站创办人 Jerry Robinson 畅谈从新手到资深交易员20多年的心路历程,颇有收获,就注册了免费会员,每个星期天收到newsletter,内容蛮丰富的。昨天上网,发现八月份促销,原价月费49美元的黄金会员,8月份只要一块钱就能加入,有效期一个月。觉得没啥风险,就花一块钱投石问路,在网站浏览一天,发现好多宝贝,仿佛刘姥姥进了大观园,眼花缭乱,脑洞大开。这里先捡主要的说说吧。

1. Profit Trakker (链接 https://followthemoney.com/?ref=67
Web-based trading system, iPhone和iPad上就能看,适用于股票和ETF的简单直接有效的交易系统。
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/I3jlfsjSi2G6XnyIHDqK61ZqPnpUBS.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

第一步下跌:红线跌到绿区,要从绿区回调。
第二步触发:黑线从红线下方,移动到上方。
第三部确认:黑线必须在绿区。
满足以上三个指标,就买入。相反就卖出。

我用这个系统,back-test腾讯,真准啊。去年八月,38元左右买了几百股腾讯,今年1月26日最高60.96,其实那时就有卖出信号了,见下图。
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/C3BVJD6KDR81u2YkPsgqLAvJ8k6OhP.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>
多么希望我早点遇到Follow the Money Profit Trakker !(链接 https://followthemoney.com/?ref=67

2. 星期天出版的Weekly Robinson Report,有20多页,网上有8/5/18发行的黄金会员周刊,包罗万象。蜻蜓点水,选两则免费会员看不到的内容分享一下,
New Trade Idea
Five Below (FIVE)
Trigger $102.51
Stop Loss Price $102.51
Max Buy Price $103.29
Avg Volume 1.26M

8/10主要指数下跌,FIVE周五逆市上涨1.62%,收盘105.93,最高达106.47,牛!
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/Px2aVYfHuxzyFT3YjkuFU6gzQvKiNe.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

地产投资:Top Ranked Real Estate Investment Trusts
Top Retail REIT 第十名
Ticker: NNN (National Retail Properties), YTD % thru 8/3/18: 9.95%. Dividend 4.21%
Top Diversified REIT 第十名
Ticker: ABR (Arbor Realty Trust) YTD % thru 8/3/18. Dividend 7.07%
Top Healthcare REIT 第十名
Ticker: CTRE(CareTrust REIT). YTD % thru 8/3/18: 8.03%. Dividend 4.43%


3. 每星期二,一小时Group Coaching Webinar,网上可收看过往各期;

8/7/18: Trading with Multiple Timeframes,
Cover the differences between daily, weekly and monthly charts,
对应 Follow the Money Profit Trakker Day Trading View, Swing Trading View, Position View, Long Term Investment View.

7/31/18:Trader Q&A w/ Jerry Robinson
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/L5jecCmPXJWZNQPxcKFcylX1w8YRlu.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>


4. Dashboard: 像一个大宝库,我勾出了自己感兴趣的,这几天看看。

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/TQJoi6tghJpuIHHScEBzMzp4v4WWHn.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

还有一个意外收获, https://followthemoney.com/?ref=67网上视频,提到可以免费获得Investor's Business Daily IBD 50 高速成长公司名单。果然,Google一下关键词就找到了!
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/LJ2ads0CT3BNfrt83kYIsZaT98DFiw.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

最后一个bonus:免费下载网站创办人,经济学家Jerry Robinson的著作。
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/nUhwrMF4rwhVrCNRMi3QQWApmVmDtC.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/hmiNqwoAREW29gXsfXdXyY6Mp0hWsz.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

我是用Visa Gift Card注册的,不必担心auto-renewal,绝对物超所值。
一块钱投资,成为一个月黄金会员,回报几十上百,甚至更多,值得一试!

大家周末愉快!贡献一个帖子:重温《笑傲股市》
http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=497497

亚历山大·埃尔德博士和《以交易为生》
http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?page=1&id=501070

Good luck!

]]>
http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=495557 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=495557 Sat, 11 Aug 2018 22:54:18 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
<!--html--><span style="color:red;">SOX ( Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ) 包含的股票。</span> (reply) Index Methodology

To be included in the Index a security must meet the criteria defined by the Philadelphia Stock Exchange and Nasdaq OMX. A stock must have business operations that primarily focus on the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors. Stocks must be listed on the NASDAQ, New York Stock Exchange or NYSE MKT. Shares can include common stocks, ordinary shares, ADRs, shares of beneficial interest or limited partnership interests. Securities must have a minimum market capitalization of at least $100 million. Criteria for inclusion also includes volume of trade and option listing. If the Philadelphia Stock Exchange and Nasdaq OMX identify more than 30 eligible securities, the Index will only include the top 30 largest by market capitalization.

As of June 15, 2018 the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index included the following:

ADV MICRO DEVICES

ANALOG DEVICES

APPLIED MATERIALS

ASML HLDG • BROADCOM INC.

CIRRUS LOGIC INC

CYPRESS SEMICONDUCTR

ENTEGRIS INC

INTEGRATED DEVICES

INTEL CORP

K L A-TENCOR CORP

LAM RESEARCH CORP

MARVELL TECH GROUP

MAXIM INTEGRATED

MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIE

MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY

MICRON TECHNOLOGY

MKS INSTRUMENTS INC

MONOLITHIC POWER SYS

NVIDIA CORPORATION

ON SEMICONDUCTOR

QORVO, INC. CMN

QUALCOMM INC

SILICON LABS INC

SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS

SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS

TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR

TERADYNE INC

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS

XILINX, INC.


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/soxx.asp

]]>
http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=489722 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=489722 Thu, 26 Jul 2018 20:42:13 +0000 谈股论金 雅歌
很多炒股牛人说炒股多年,试过了各种指标和方法,突然有一天悟了,从此开始稳定盈利。他们到底悟到什么了呢? https://www.zhihu.com/question/30793521/answer/295872063 (reply) 作为一个已经稳定盈利的人,我来解答下吧。我主要做外汇,期货和期权,A股也做,但是中国的股票你们知道的,做空的限制太多,融券融不到,股指期货还限制开仓和提高杠杆率。所以要等一个轮回需要5年以上,所以股票等待建仓机会比较漫长。从交易者的层面来看,我一般把他们分为这么几类人:一,幼儿园阶段:无知者无畏这种人没做过交易,只是从朋友那里听说,交易能赚大钱,或者是书刊杂志上读了一些交易大师的成功学传记,然后就跟打了鸡血似的,觉得自己也能和他们一样在金融市场赚到很多钱,这些人没有风控意识,甚至感觉这个市场只会赚钱,不会亏钱。于是他们就开户,然后一头扎进市场开始交易。然后有两种情况,一种是他们运气实在太好,刚好遇到一个股票大牛市,然后满仓做多赚的盆满钵满。然而这其实是个悲剧,因为他们没有经过完整的牛熊市周期循环,赚钱效应片面的让他们认为赚钱很容易,盲目乐观了起来,赌徒赚了钱也是不会走的,然而运气是会用完的,一旦牛市结束,在漫长的熊市的几年里,他们一样会把钱亏光。另一种情况是他们交易没多久就遇到了滑铁卢,特别是在保证金市场,带杠杆操作直接结果就是爆仓。经历一个完整的牛熊市洗礼以后,两种情况最后都是碰的是满头包,惨烈亏损收场。但是其实这类交易者只占到交易人群的不足10%,为什么人数这么少,因为说白了,只要智商正常,大幅亏损痛过之后的体验都是很深刻的,他们很快会意识到自己能力的不足,开始对市场变得谨慎。这类人开始分化,一部分人是从贪婪走向另一个极端——恐惧,他们觉得这个市场杀人不见血,自己不适合做交易,不如老老实实工作来的稳定,所以干脆放弃了市场,再也不踏入。其实这种结束的方式对于这类没有交易天分的人也算是寿终正寝,人最关键还是了解自己的能力。另一部分人不甘心,不服气,觉得一定是哪里出了问题,交易没有那么简单,于是开始分析失败的原因,开始准备进入学习阶段,也就是小学生阶段。二,小学生阶段:求知若渴当意识到市场的风险和自己知识储备的不足以后,幼儿园毕业了,进入了小学阶段,也就是刻苦学习阶段。市场上的各种技术指标,交易理念的书籍就是给他们准备的。他们求知若渴,买各种技术书籍,学习各种名人的操盘技术,看视频,听讲座,到处拜师,甚至盲目相信各种电话推荐股票的各种所谓的“老师”,希望有人指引。然后各种所谓的交易理念告诉他们,一定要懂技术指标,一定要止损,于是各种什么江恩理论,波浪理论,KDJ,MACD,布林带,均线系统,K线形态学一大堆理论不停的灌输,而且他们还学会了止损,虽然开始还是比较心疼,但是止损个十次八次也慢慢习惯了。慢慢的他们开始自满,他们天真的以为交易就是一堆数学指标公式,他们到处炫耀,滔滔不绝,讲的头头是道,忽悠忽悠幼儿园水平的交易者和不做交易的菜鸟完全没有问题。可是一年下来,他们发现自己的账户还是没有盈利,不断的止损让自己的账户越来越瘦,自己感觉掉进了一个黑洞,日复一日的做着无用功,即使偶尔能盈利几笔,也会被接下来好几笔止损把利润慢慢抹掉。这个层面的交易者是大多数人,占到80%以上,随着时间的推移,他们变成了“老手”,但不是“高手”,老手的特点是讲交易指标和理念能滔滔不绝几个小时,但是交易却没赚到钱。那些大部分所谓带你的“老师”,或者“分析师”都在这个层面。而且这个小学阶段很多人甚至十多年都不能毕业,我认识一个“老手”,自称做期货18年了,他的微信公众号里面全都是自己写的文章,很有水平,讲的头头是道,鸡汤也很暖心,但是我和他聊天,他竟然18年亏损600万,至今还没实现稳定盈利,他自我安慰说“交易员是大器晚成的行业”,他还没有放弃。我无语。。。。。。当这个层面的交易者经过了好几年浑浑噩噩的交易,开始对自己已经掌握的各种知识产生了怀疑。1,交易指标会矛盾,MACD金叉,但KDJ死叉,均线又金叉,如何交易,到底哪个对?未来的行情无非就三种情况:要么涨,要么跌,要么震荡,随便判断一种都有33%的胜率,但是每叠加一种技术指标,排列组合就多一倍的判断情况,MACD判断2种,加上KDJ就是4中,加上均线就是8种 。。。。。。2,交易指标会钝化,在连续几个月的震荡走势里,根绝KDJ的金叉和死叉高抛低吸,做的不亦乐乎,然后行情从震荡走势进入上升趋势走势,KDJ高位死叉,结果你还是根据以往的经验做空,结果行情连续涨了1个月,KDJ在高位反复死叉,钝化了1个月,你的亏损远大于做震荡趋势赚的那点微薄盈利,最后“辛辛苦苦几十年,一觉回到解放前”。3,交易指标会滞后,对于比较小的波段涨幅或者跌幅来看,交易指标往往会出现滞后,也就是上涨行情走完了,KDJ才出现金叉,等你进场做多以后,行情开始回落,你被挂在山顶,高处不胜寒,然后站岗等着行情涨回来,每天吃不好睡不好,折磨自己。有人说把技术指标当成反向指标不就可以了吗?呵呵,对不起,行情万一不是小幅上涨波段,是大幅的上涨趋势行情的时候,你却与行情反着做空,你会死的更快,快速上涨的行情会很快把你拉爆仓,你会捶胸顿足的说:“我等了这么久,这么大的一波牛市,我却做空爆仓!”你恨不得把电脑砸了,久久不能原谅自己。这种情况很可能会伴随你好多年,甚至终身都走不出来,因为大部分人都被困这个层面迷失了自己。这类人也是金融市场的永动机,源源不断的给这个市场贡献着新鲜的血液。金字塔尖的盈利者赚的利润主要来自于他们。突然有一天,你意识到,技术指标和固定的交易法则只会让你的判断陷入混乱,甚至你怀疑编写技术指标的人也只是看图说故事,从几十年的市场行情数据中挑出吻合自己理论的情况然后截图编写成了一本书,固定交易法则的发明者也是发现法则失效后写了一本书,然后鼓吹自己的理论,骗骗消费者,赚取丰厚的版权费,最后离开市场,这在华尔街屡见不鲜。你于是去百度了下,你发现:均线系统买入法(葛兰碧八大法则)发明者葛兰碧,最终破产离开市场;波浪理论发明者艾略特,只是个会计,一辈子没有做过股票,他的继任着,小罗伯特.普莱切特,在1987年美股大跌之后天天到处演讲说美股将进入长期熊市,并且自己长期做空,结果美股很快创出新高又涨了13年,他亏了一大笔钱以后从此销声匿迹;江恩理论的发明者江恩,搞出了一大堆复杂的理论(反正我是没完全看懂),有角度线,有四边形,有六角形,有占星术。。。。。。结果江恩晚年破产,穷困潦倒;被无数国人奉为华尔街最伟大的操盘手的杰西. 利佛摩尔,晚年破产自杀;著名的海龟交易法则的发明人丹尼斯,在1987年股市崩盘后亏损60%以后一蹶不振离开市场。注:(甚至有专门的短线基金公司,利用“反海龟交易法则”来猎杀这些“海龟”,他们叫做喝“海龟汤(Turtle Soup)”法则。琳达·华斯基和拉利·康诺在他们的书《华尔街精灵——屡试不爽的短期交易策略》明确了这种海龟汤策略的有效性,当大量的散户(海龟)固守自己的海龟交易法则的时候,更大的金融大鳄很容易知道他们的计划,故意利用少量资金造成假突破拉高,吸引海龟入场,然后反向操作,迫使海龟止损而自己获利,这种方法屡试不爽。这就是市场,当一种方法被证明有效,大量散户聚集的时候,一定会招来“大鳄”的猎杀。就跟海洋中聚集的鱼群容易遭到海豚围猎一样的道理。”)学习是没有错的,但是如果你指望学懂一门理论就能在这个市场稳定盈利,并且执迷不悟的人,我建议早点离开这个市场。我本人在这个层面也是停留时间最久的,直到有一天的顿悟:我发现了没有人能通过技术指标准确预测市场,技术指标也是猜的,既然是猜的,为什么我不自己去猜而一定要迷信技术指标呢?通过思考,我发现了做交易最重要的原则----概率。顿悟后,我马上扔掉了廖英强的《我的成功之路》,《股市聊聊吧》和江恩的各种理论等一共20多本书,是扔掉,不是卖掉,因为我连卖都懒得卖,我想让这些书马上消失,这些糟粕困扰了我很多年。如果你能明白概率,那么小学阶段毕业了,你进入到最后的不到10%的人群里面,也就是进入了中学生时代阶段----概率的世界。三,中学生阶段:概率的世界进入这个层面以后,你会发现其实没有人能准确的预期市场,市场的任何行为都是概率的结果,市场第二天可能涨,也可能跌,你只需要对可能性做出相应的计划就是了,结果并不重要,重要的是市场所有可能结果,都落在你的计划范围内,你的计划永远都不会失控。概率包括了“三率”:第一,胜率:每次建仓到平仓是盈利还是亏损的。(其实这样理解不对,这也是中学生和大学生思维的区别,以后会讲,这里为了方便理解暂时定义为盈亏);第二,赔率:也就是盈亏比,每次做出的计划,如果赚钱盈利多少,亏损的话亏损多少;第三,破产率:也就是仓位控制或者叫做资金管理。第一:胜率举个例子:我和你玩抛硬币的游戏,每人1000元筹码,抛一次赌1元,正面我赢,反面你赢。我赢你给我1元,你赢我给你1元。你会觉得这个游戏很无聊,因为从概率上来讲,如果次数足够多,样本空间足够大,你和我的胜率都趋近于50%,我们在玩一个永远没有胜负的游戏。但是如果情况特殊一些,比如地面不平,是一个砖头铺成的路面,硬币有一定概率掉在地上的时候是竖起来夹在砖头缝隙里面的。这种情况如果判定算你赢,那么概率的天平就不平衡了。通过统计1000次的结果有10次是这样的情况,也就是1%,也就是你的胜率变为了51%,我变为了49%,胜率变得不平衡了,那么这时候,还是赌1元,我觉得你可能恨不得一天跟我玩成千上万次,因为你知道你有胜率优势,只要次数足够多,你迟早赢光我的1000元,让我破产。赌场里面就是利用这一点胜率的不均衡赚钱的,有一种骰子的玩法,是押大小,三个筛子,数字之和是3~18,如果是3~10算小,11~18算大,赔率2倍,也就是你押1元,你赢了给你2元,输了扣1元。看似胜率是50%,但是赌场规定,只要是三个数字相同,比如三个6,三个3,三个1,就算赌场赢。结果赌场的胜率就变为了51.35%(自己去计算),一天赌场可能要玩上万局这样的游戏,而且客人不一定都押最低赌注,所以从概率上只要样本空间足够大,赌场包赚不赔。美国有很多高频交易公司也是利用这一点来盈利,注意这里的高频交易可不是指炒单,不要以为你一天坐在电脑前,不断利用分钟线交易,利用胜率的微弱优势,不断累积利润就叫做高频交易了,这种做法在美国看来已经很low了,高频交易公司一天的交易量高达10万笔以上,设备用的美国军方的微波通讯技术(价值一般在5000万美金以上),交易的延迟时间单位是微妙(最近听说向纳秒迈进),我们的光纤网络的延迟单位是毫秒,1秒=1000毫秒,1毫秒=1000微秒,也就是说我们的光纤网络的延迟时间在他们看来是超级慢动作,他们把设备直接架设在纳斯达克的交易所机房内,利用最近的物理距离,优先成交后然后提高一点报价在提供给市场,赚取微弱的价差。问你们一个数学题:如果每1笔的胜率是51%,那么每天要做多少笔交易,当天盈利的概率是99.99%?根据数学建模,答案大概是大于10万笔交易。也就是说高频交易公司每天要做10万笔交易以上,可以保证当天赚钱的概率是99.99%。高频交易公司Virtu Financial在2014年在美国提交IPO申请准备上市,为了上市不得不公开他们的财务报表,结果发现该公司在1238个交易日里,只有1天是亏损的,2013年营收为6.65亿美金,利润为1.82亿美金,同比增长8%。第二,赔率再来看赔率,如果地面是平的,不可能有硬币竖着的情况,那么改变一下赔率,比如你赢我给你1.05元,我赢你给我0.95元,胜率不变,赔率变成了1.05/0.95=1.10,你一样会拼命和我玩这个游戏,一直到赢光我的1000元。喜欢打麻将的朋友一定知道这个原理,就是所谓的麻将高手,经常是输小牌赢大牌,从胜率上看,他胡的次数不多,但是最终赢得钱确很多,因为他们知道赔率这个概念。其实做交易的赔率的思想和打麻将完全一样,在交易中非常重要,其实做过几年交易的人都明白一件事,很多交易者的交易胜率能达到40%就已经很不错了,所以失去的胜率优势只能靠赔率来弥补。请问你,若一套交易系统的胜率只有30%,但赔率可以达到1赔3,也就是盈利是亏损的三倍,你认为怎么样呢?我会说,这是一套不错的系统。为什么呢?仔细看分析;   10次为一个交易周期,每次赚就3,赔就1。  10次全亏, 亏10   9次亏,1次对, 亏6   8次亏,2次对, 亏2   7次亏,3次对, 赚2(请注意,这就是30%胜率,赔率一赔三的情况)   6次亏,4次对, 赚6   5次亏,5次对, 赚10   4次亏,6次对, 赚14   3次亏,7次对, 赚18   2次亏,8次对, 赚22   1次亏,9次对, 赚26   10次全对, 赚30   因此,你还认为赚钱的根本在胜率么?是不是你理解了为什么赚钱高手可以经常错,最后账户仍在赚钱呢?是不是可以理解海龟交易法则的创始人丹尼斯说他95%的交易都亏钱,赚钱的交易只是5%还可以创造如此大利润的原因,所以,你是不是该改变一下你仰慕高手的标准了?人往往会被表面的东西所吸引(胜率),而忽视更重要的东西(赔率)。赔率才是交易员要考虑的根本问题:好好体会下索罗斯的这句话吧:你正确或错误并不是最重要的,最重要的是你正确的时候能赚多少钱、错误的时候会亏多少钱。---------索罗斯第三,破产率:还是抛硬币的例子,你我各有1000元,我把胜率优势和赔率优势都给你,地面是不平的砖头地面,你有51%胜率,然后你的赔率还是1.10,但是游戏规则修改下,不是你赢了赚1.05元,输了亏0.95元了,而是赌注提高1000倍,你赢了赚1050元,输了亏950元。那么最后谁赢就不一定了,因为你虽然占有胜率和赔率优势,但是破产率太高了,你很有可能第一次就输了,然后再也没钱玩第二次了,你破产了。这个例子就说明仓位管理或者资金管理的重要性,无论你多有把握,你也不能把所有筹码压在一次机会上,并且你还要计算好,每次如果行情押错了,你的最大损失是多少,你能不能承受,这就是仓位管理。也就是如果你有把握在长期的市场交易中取胜,你也必须计算好,你可以承受多少次损失而不破产。比如你每次计划损失2%就止损,那么你可以交易50次才破产,那么你有信心在交易10次以后就开始盈利,那么这就是一个安全的系统。要知道,交易世界的盈亏是非线性的,不是每次交易一定能赚钱的,它是一个概率统计的结果,如果认为从情绪思想上改变胜率,造成亏损,很可能导致交易盈亏的不均衡。交易员有句著名的话叫做:“赚大赔小,生存第一”,前一句讲的是胜率和赔率,后一句讲的是破产率,而纪律是始终把每一次操作控制在合理的比例中的一种心态均衡术。再次从人性的角度去考量,为什么生存第一这个环节在实践中总是被忽视呢,原因如下: 人性导致人总是急于致富,如果能一夜暴富更好。   因为这种急于致富的心里,导致重仓,频繁交易。   重仓交易会导致两种结果:一种是大赚,因为思想指导行为,行为变成习惯,习惯决定命运的关系,所以下一次还是会重仓,最后的结果一定是从原点回到原点。所以之前的大赚其实是一种陷阱。甜蜜的诱惑而已,因为你思想里重仓这个观念导致你必定死于这个市场,早晚而已。一种是大赔,大赔我们可以从数学角度去考虑一下。   亏损5%,后期要打平需要盈利5.26%   亏损10%,后期打平需要盈利11.11%   亏损20%,后期打平需要盈利25.00%   亏损30%,后期打平需要盈利42.86%   亏损40%,后期打平需要盈利66.67%   亏损50%,后期打平需要盈利100%   亏损60%,后期打平需要盈利150%   亏损70%,后期打平需要盈利233.33%   好了我不往下继续列举了,有兴趣自己算,一次大赔就可以让你的本金大幅度缩水。所以你的资金可以支持你的交易系统玩多少次可以进入盈利的循环,这个就是破产率的计算。到此为止,你基本上走上了正确的道路,你的交易开始围绕概率做出计划,你开始盈利了。但是你会发现你的盈利并不稳定,你往往某次押注太多而止损过大,或者押注太少做对了行情但是盈利太少,或者你由于太过于谨慎而错过了行情而懊恼。你的账户可能是前几个月大幅盈利,然后后几个月又亏了回去,资金净值曲线像心态图,你很困惑,你意识到在金融市场,稳定盈利才是高于一切的。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司投资50年,平均每年盈利只有19%,结果早就了世界首富。索罗斯40年每年盈利23%,造就了180亿美金的财富。你发现你的月盈利往往能达到50%甚至更高,但是你的年平均收益经常是负的。你终于意识到“稳定”二字是多少重要,爱因斯坦说:“复利是世界第八大奇迹,威力超过原子弹。”,是多么深刻的一句话。没有稳定的复利积累,无论你多么努力,账户净值也只是心电图而已。你需要一种机制,保证你操作的稳定性,从而实现稳定盈利。想到了这一层,你的中学生涯可以结束了,进入了大学时期,也就是下一个层面,心态管理层面,也就是纪律层面。四,大学生阶段:心态的管理---纪律其实除了上一个层面的“三率”,还有最重要的“一律”,就是:纪律“。纪律是可以把上述”三率“有机的结合在一起,并且能够实现重复性操作的执行力。能做好这一层面的人,已经到了金字塔的顶部,只占到所有交易者的1%左右。在这个层面,交易者一定要明白一件事,就是用纪律去统领一切概率的可能性,我希望大家努力的去理解。纪律(心态):在纪律的贯穿下,围绕概率做出计划。”胜败“,”对错“,和”盈亏“是三个全完不同的概念。这个概念我没有见过任何交易书本上提出来,是我把他们提炼出来的。胜败:在这里,胜率的意义变了,胜败并不是指盈利和亏损,而是行情有没有按照你计划的大概率事件进行。这个意义很重要,仔细体会,因为这就是概率世界,要用概率思维。比如:我觉得黄金明天价格上涨,日K线是实体较大的阳线是大概率事件,于是做好计划,明天找个日内低点进场做多,结果行情没有按照计划的上涨,行情只是震荡了一天,我在晚点时间找个高位平仓出局,最后收了一个十字星K线,虽然这次操作是小幅盈利的,但是我从统计上我是按照失败率来计算的。对错:对错是整体策略的执行力的结果。还是举黄金的例子:我决定做一个黄金的日线级别的波段,明天入场做多。进场点:在日内找低点进场,时间大概是下午16:00~18:00(欧洲时间段),或者21:00~23:00(美国时间段)持仓形态:在第二天凌晨2:00必须走出实体超过5美金的日K线。止损时间和形态:进场后2小时不拉升止损;进场后下跌超过3美金止损;进场后最低点如果高于开盘价,跌破开盘价止损;(和上一条哪个优先哪个执行);超过凌晨2:00,日K线实体不足5美金止损(也可能是止盈了)。进场仓位:10%止盈:跌破5日均线止盈;跌破正止损价位止盈(正止损是我发明的词,也就是行情大幅离开成本价以后,在成本价上方0.5~1美金设置止损)计划做5个交易日,第5个交易日当天找高点止盈(时间止盈)。好了,时间空间都有了,下面就是明天的执行力了,第二天有没有完全按照计划去执行,如果执行了,就是”对“,没有按照计划执行”就是“错”。如果你发现计划制定的有漏洞,那么也一定要按照计划进行,或者按照损失最小的方式执行,然后执行之后在根据盘后总结,分析总结,修改计划的不足。绝对不能盘中临时修改计划,这个是大忌。盈亏:最后,其实最不重要的才是盈亏。这个很矛盾,做交易嘛,最重要的就是赚钱,但是做过几年交易的朋友肯定明白一个问题,你越是注重盈亏,你越是赚不到钱。你过分专注于你的头寸的浮盈或者浮亏,浮盈一点就马上想落袋为安,浮亏加大反而幻想能扭亏为盈,或者你如果开多单后,行情下跌,你止损,刚止损不久后行情就开始上涨,最后甩掉你开始一波行情,然后自己就开始后悔。过分专注账户头寸盈亏,你的心态就会被甩来甩去,失去执行力。最后我发现,只要认真关注胜败(也就是趋势掌控能力),和对错(计划执行能力),最后必定盈利,盈利其实只是计划的副产品。在桥水基金的CEO雷·达里奥 的《原则》一书中描述了一级效应,二级效应和三级效应的概念。简单的说,你要达到高级别的目的,就要忍受或者忽视低级别的痛苦。比如你想健身获得好身材(二级效应),你就要忍受健身中的肌肉痛苦(一级效应);你想身体健康(二级效应),你就要忍受不能吃各种你喜爱的含高脂肪,胆固醇,糖分的食品(一级效应)。同样道理,如果你想在市场长期稳定盈利(三级效应),就必须坚持关注胜败(也就是趋势掌控能力),和对错(计划执行能力)(二级效应),并且忽视盈亏(一级效应)。其实纪律就是把上述过程一遍又一遍的机械性的重复,直到形成一种习惯。良性的循环可以让你稳定盈利,恶性循环让你持续亏损。良性循环是:自信---自律---获利---自豪---自信恶性循环是:盈利---违反策略---亏损---沮丧(情绪失控)---大亏所以要想办法走向良性循环,并形成习惯。比如本来你通过几百次交易统计,找到了胜率和赔率最高的形态去交易,比如在5日均线以上做多,5日均线一下做空,或者只做趋势开始以后的折返行情,结果连续止损了3,4次以后(假设3,4次连续止损在系统中是正常的情况),但是你的心态不平衡了,开始不服气,和市场闹情绪,丢掉了原来的计划,开始追涨杀跌,或者抄底摸顶,你背离了你的高胜率和赔率系统,结果胜率赔率大幅下降,最后导致大亏。或者你本来就只做趋势行情的折返走势,这样赔率最高,比如涨势的趋势,下跌后调整的折返的底部空间止损有限,但是上涨空间却很大,这样的交易是高赔率系统。结果可能因为折返走势是一个复杂整理走势,时间和空间都超过你的预期,比如你预期整理5天,结果可能整理了8天,你觉得应该是v型反转,结果走了一个abc三浪,甚至是5浪的下跌三角形整理,结果你止损了好几次,就开始乱了,要么是赌气开始频繁交易,亏损加大,要么就是害怕继续止损停止了,从而错过了这次机会(记住错过一段机会行情也是亏损,因为盈亏同源,该抓住的行情没抓住,也会造成你账户最终的盈亏比不均衡造成亏损)。或者是你总是感觉你的某次机会是包赚不赔的机会,错过太可惜,你无形中放大了胜率,你想,本来应该下10张标准合约的,盈利30%,但是如果你下20张合约,那账户可以盈利60%,多好的机会啊。结果你违背了你的系统,放大的仓位,无形中大大提高了破产率,本来可以行情反向走20%你才爆仓,结果由于仓位增加了一倍,10%就爆仓破产了。结果很不幸,交易所半夜修改规格,你做的品种第二天开盘很快跌停,然后连续三天,你爆仓了。你内心无形中放大机会的胜率,往往可以导致你不自觉的增加仓位,加大破产率。这些都是交易中导致走向恶性循环的一些例子。那么说到这里,大家就明白了,稳定盈利的关键是在于如何保持始终纪律的执行。这里我说几点我的经验:1,行为习惯的改变能力:《幽灵的礼物》这本书里面讲了两部分一部分就是操作,第二部分是行为习惯的改变,我第一次读这本书的时候,对第一部分操作很感兴趣,但是过了几年再次读这本书的时候,我觉得第二部分才是核心内容。有句话叫做江山易改本性难移。交易者里面大家性格各异,性格差异性造成了多彩的世界。有个性,这个没错,我们彼此交朋友,只要人的人品不坏,性格有棱角都可以相互包容,也不影响你的正常生活。但是在交易的世界,如果你的性格有一点点棱角,都可能造成亏损,赤裸裸的亏损,所以市场迫使交易者必须对自己的性格经行调整,我们不能骗自己,我们必须对自己100%的忠诚。我们必须谨小慎微,一只眼睛盯着市场,一只眼睛盯着自己,一遍又一遍的审视自己,有没情绪失控,频繁交易,不按照计划进行,放大盈利预期从而加重仓位。。。。。。虽然我们成人了,但是我们必须像小孩子一样对待自己。从改掉坏习惯的角度来看,小孩子其实挺幸福的,犯了错误,老师和家长一定会很快出来指责或者惩罚,让小孩子很快就能记住这件事是错误的,并且以后不再犯同样的错误,但是在交易者中,没有人监督自己,规则是自己定的,可以随意修改,所以我们一遍又一遍的纵容自己,这就造成了我们总是再犯同样的错误。比如吸烟有害健康,烟民大部分都有戒烟的经历,但是大部分都失败了,原因很简单,自己制定的规则对自己的约束力不足。如果有一条法律,吸烟的人只要决定戒烟要去公安局备案,如果发现再次吸烟,拉出去枪毙。我估计戒烟者99%能戒掉。所以,我们不要以为自己成年了就了不起了,其实我们的内心一样需要约束和监管。具体方法还是要自己去找,适合自己最重要。比如我戒掉频繁操作的过程,我每天提前写好交易计划,并且规定交易次数,然后打印出来,然后签字送给老婆监督,然后第二天让老婆检查账户,看看符合不符合昨天的内容,如果不符合当面罚跪。怎么样我也是一个好面子的男人,哪里能受得了这个屈辱,这件事坚持了半个多月,我就彻底戒掉了频繁交易的习惯,交易次数到了以后主动关电脑,出去散步。小插曲是为什么老婆监管半个多月就不监管了呢,不是我意志力不强,是我老婆看到我账户的盈亏波动后受不了,女人嘛。总是和我吵架,所以中止了,但是我发现我的习惯已经改过来了。记得一本书上说一个新的行为习惯的养成只要21天,还是有道理的。我见过的想改变自己行为的方式还有很多,甚至有的很残忍,我见过一个做交易的朋友,总是抄底摸顶亏损,结果他犯一次错误就拿烟头烫一次胳膊,想改变这个坏习惯,最后在他胳膊有6个烟疤以后他彻底改变了。不管什么方法,记住不要指望自己的自控力有多么高,找到一些类似适合于自己,甚至类似教育小孩子的方法,让自己彻底改变。为什么要改变自己的不好的行为习惯,因为盈亏同源,你要想稳定盈利,不光要盈利,还要控制亏损。我做了2年大概1400多笔交易的记录,我发现我只要把抄底摸顶,频繁交易,重仓交易,情绪不稳定时候的交易造成的亏损去掉,我的账户将大幅盈利。所以行为习惯的改变直接造成了你到底是盈利还是亏损。我见过一个交易员,号称期货交易做了18年,鸡汤和大道理给你讲一堆,结果一问18年亏了600万,到现在还没有稳定盈利,我从细节看得出,他在讲道理的时候什么都知道,一开始交易,不良习惯就总是伴随着他,也就是他始终没有把这些道理,具体到如何改变自己的行为习惯上去,从而造成了18年的亏损,可悲的是,他现在还是没有意识到这一点。其实做交易是一个“认知”需要不断提升的行业,和交易的年龄真的没有关系,如果没有提升认知,你的”思维能级“和交易2~3年的新手是一样的,而且他们还容易产生一种”倚老卖老“的思想,动不动以”老子吃过的盐比你吃过的饭还多“的想法自居,让自己的思想进一步固化,这是很危险的。类似于这样的交易者其实很多,请大家引以为戒。2,操作的一致性:有个经典的赌徒谬论,就是赌徒相信他上一次亏钱了,这一次赚钱的概率要大一些。其实,每次赌博的盈亏的概率都是一样的,这次的盈亏和上一次盈亏其实没有关系,但是人性总喜欢把他们联系到一起,本来计划交易10次,3次较大赔率的盈利就可以覆盖7次亏损。但是如果交易开始就出现连续3次亏损,那么这个交易者的心态是不是还能坚持原来的计划。这里有一个例子:《海龟交易法则》中作者在1998年交易可可期货的例子让我印象很深刻,他利用海龟交易法则,在1998~1999年的10个月当中做了28笔可可交易,在前6个月,他连续交易17次都是亏损。结果最终10个月里面,他大幅获利。交易28笔,胜率14%,赔率(盈亏比3.5),亏损22355美金,盈利78256美金,净利润55903美金。如果换作是你,你能在6个月亏损17次还继续坚持你的交易系统吗?所以拥有一个预期为正的交易系统也许很重要,但是能坚持操作的一致性更为重要。3,沉没成本,赌徒谬论和心态归零:沉没成本是指你无法挽回的成本,你交易今天不小心亏损了账户的5%,你开始痛心疾首,开始自责,早知道不开这个仓就好了,早知道我反向做就好了,早知道今天我不开电脑出去和朋友打牌就好了。。。。。你要知道,不管你怎么责怪自己,这5%是永远不会回来了,这叫做“沉没成本”,如果你想继续心态平静的交易下去,你必须接受它,让自己的情绪马上回复正常,因为下一次的交易,和你上一次赚多少钱或者亏多少钱毫无关系。赌徒谬论是指一部分赌博的人相信运气,上一次亏了钱,那么这一次大概率就能赚钱。其实这是个谬论,就和抛硬币一样,其实每一次是正面或者反面的概率都是50%,也就是说每一次赌博的结果,和上一次的结果没有任何关系,做交易也是一样。所以不要让上一次的结果影响到你。知道了上面的两个原理,就要学会心态归零,不管你上一次交易是大赚还是大亏,总结完成功和失败的原因以后,把原理记住,然后忘掉这次事情,重新开始,要做到心态归零,千万不要把上次的交易结果对心态的影响,带入下一次交易。4,时间框架的选择问题:有的人喜欢做短线,有的喜欢中长线,但是不管做什么周期,都要保持操作周期的一致性。比如我喜欢做中长线,我就喜欢看日K线,周K线和月K线,只有决定具体进场当天的时候,我才会参考30分钟K线。很多交易者的交易周期是混乱的,比如做短线的,本来看的是5分钟K线,做多结果被套住了,然后就开始看日K线,从日线上找支持自己的做多的理由,然后死扛,这样跨周期操作是很危险的。所以保持自己的交易时间框架也是减少亏损,稳定盈利的关键。5,避免交易系统的程序化历史回测陷阱:胜率和盈亏比要等行情走完才知道,但是你系统的预期是正还是负一定是通过你长期做单的统计结果。这里再强调一下,是“自己长期做单的统计结果”,不是把你的系统编个程序去跑历史回测。你以为这样能偷懒,很快算出你的系统预期为正还是负?错了,历史回测的结果和实盘的结果往往相差很大,原因做过程序化交易的人一定知道的:过度拟合,时间框架跨度不同,模拟和现实成交价格偏差,滑点等等问题。所以自己的交易系统必须放进实盘去检验,然后自己做出统计。我修改一次系统往往要实盘检验3个月以上才算可靠。根据实盘统计,你要从概率上挑出高胜率加高赔率的操作,看看有没有共性和重复交易的可能性,然后也要挑出低胜率,大幅亏损的操作,并想办法克服掉这样的操作。你计算一下,如果去掉这些大幅亏损的,情绪化,不按照计划操作的单,如果你的盈利是正的,那么就已经得到了一个预期为正的交易系统,剩下的工作就是保持优势操作的重复性,和一致性,努力去掉各种不按照计划操作的做单习惯。如果真的做好了这一切,你的系统就成型了。玩交易就是玩个性,这个系统就是属于你自己的,是你能深刻理解的,别人效仿不了的系统,这是你的核心竞争力。说白了,还是一个提升认知,克服不良习惯的过程,这个过程不能偷懒,必须去实盘验证。如果能把上述五点做好,就有了比较好的纪律感,那么做交易就进入了1%的绝对盈利者的范围了。这些朋友交易风格很稳定,收益也很稳定,已经在市场中是很不错的交易者了。但是他们离大师的境界,还有一段距离。那么大师的境界,是怎么样的呢?五,大师的境界---信念普通交易者通过不断的学习,体悟,实践,约束,能达到大学的阶段已经很不错了,但是要达到大师的级别,不光要通过学习,还要通过哲学的升华,这种鬼才往往不是努力的结果,是天生的能力,没有几个人能达到,全世界屈指可数。索罗斯在1992年做空英镑的时候,他的助手德鲁肯米勒对索罗斯说:“我觉得机会来了,我们应该下重注,55亿。”索罗斯在听完他的解释之后,他说:“你没问题吧?这是二十年不遇的机会,我们应该把200%的身价都赌上。”最后他们动用150亿美元,把曾经历史上最强悍的银行——英格兰银行,给彻底打趴下了。这种操作即使你达到了纪律良好,稳定盈利的层面,你反而不敢做出这样全押的操作,因为不断的良好纪律习惯告诉你不能犯错误,会破产的,这种赌上所有身家性命的操作和所有的交易原则是相互违背的。索罗斯的量子基金也是几十年按照自己的交易系统稳定交易,慢慢积累财富,但是大师的不同就在于这里,他们在关键时刻不按常理出牌,他们在关键时刻可以放弃本来的一切原则去做自己认为是非常确定的事情,背后有一种信念在支撑着他们,这种信念会成为为强大的意志力,从而扭转时空格局改变现状。你早晚会明白,其实没盈利的人和稳定盈利的人的差别,归根结蒂是信念的问题,没盈利的人可能永远都体会不到:如果你决定相信你自己一定成功,那么你就已经成功了,不存在失败的可能性,剩下的只是一个“走流程”的过程问题。这不是危言损听。近代物理科学家也通过量子力学证实了这一点:量子力学中的著名的电子双缝干涉实验,科学家惊讶的发现,人类的观察竟然可以改变电子的形态,如果观察它,实验显示电子会变为粒子,如果不观察,电子会变为波。也就是人的意识可以改变量子的形态。为此著名的量子力学哥本哈根学派创始人尼尔斯.波尔和大名鼎鼎的爱因斯坦争论了30多年,爱因斯坦不信这一套,认为量子的形态在人们观察之前就已经确定,怎么可能由人的意识改变?他说出了那句著名的名言:“上帝不会掷骰子",然后在1955年离世。天才的爱尔兰物理学家约翰. 贝尔终于在1964年想出来一个办法证明谁是对的,他提出了著名的“贝尔不等式”,提出只要根据量子缠绕理论设计一个实验仪器,通过实验数据就可以证明到底是波尔对还是爱因斯坦对,结果1972年美国物理学家约翰.克劳泽(John.Clauser)和1982年法国物理学家阿兰.阿斯佩(Alain. Aspect)分别根据光量子纠缠的偏振原理设计出了实验仪器,经过实验数据的验证,证实了波尔是对的,也就是量子的塌缩状态确实是由观测者的意识而改变的,上帝不光会掷骰子,而且无时不刻都在掷骰子,爱因斯坦错了。甚至在最新的实验中,2017年在澳大利亚国立大学的量子力学实验中,竟然发现在放入光栅之前,量子的状态已经发生改变,也就是说未来的意识行为可以改变历史。世界的物理学家通过实验不断的被量子力学震撼,不禁常常回想起量子力学的创始人尼尔斯.波尔说过的那句名言:”如果量子力学没有让你深感震惊的话,说明你还没真正了解它。“这个世界是由各种微观粒子组成的,而量子是他们的基本单位。然而量子的状态竟然可以被人的意识改变,也就是说世界是由人的意识构成的。如果推论下去,历史不存在,时间不存在,一切都不存在,一切都是意识的产物,而信心引导着意识,叫做信念。所以如果一个人想做成一件事,关键是看他的信念够不够强大。纵观周围,为什么牛B公司的创始人都是信念很足的人,可以参考马云,看看他演讲就知道了,因为他相信自己,他就已经成功了。马云在2016年公司年会中说,忽悠和自信的区别:“忽悠是自己不信,而要让别人相信。自信是自己相信,别人信不信不知道。”红军在二万五千里长征最困难的时候,革命为什么能成功也是这样的道理。装备差,人少,这些都不是问题,信念没有动摇,最终改变了一切。只有彻底明白了这个道理,融入到你的血液里,没有丝毫的怀疑,你做任何事情都无往而不利。哲学和科学早晚会在山顶回合的,而早点明白对自己的人生很有好处。大师和成功交易者的区别就在于,他们的信念是一般人不可比拟的。获得交易信念之后你会发现自己有2个改变:1,发现逻辑的欺骗性(逻辑陷阱):先讲一个故事:出自《吕氏春秋·离谓》故事是说春秋时期一个叫邓析的人(据说是历史上律师的鼻祖)教人打官司的故事。郑国有个富人的父亲不小心掉河里淹死了,被一个人渔夫打捞了上来,渔夫向富人要了极高的价格卖给他尸体,富人很不满便去找邓析寻求解决办法,邓析告诉他:“不着急,他除了卖给你,还能卖给谁呢?”富者依计行事。过了几日,渔夫着急了,尸体腐烂发臭,他也去找邓析寻求意见,邓析告诉他:“不着急,他除了到你这儿买,还能到哪儿呢?”最后尸体烂在路边,造成了很坏的社会影响。从逻辑上看,两套说法都没有错,但是为什么造成了很坏的结果。这就说明了一个问题,逻辑是为意识服务的。哲学家奥修做个一个比喻:“逻辑其实是个妓女,谁给钱就为谁服务”,虽然不太好听,但是很有道理。其实想想,我们做任何事情,其实都是先有个念头(意识),然后才开始给它匹配一堆逻辑,或者说是借口。所以说逻辑其实并不重要,它只是为意识服务的。我想说明一个什么道理呢,那就是所谓的各种分析师,评论家,专家在新闻中的逻辑,其实都不一定是真的事实,只是他们念头的副产品。你会发现他们“马后炮”水平很高,欧元兑美元今天涨了,他们会找到一堆逻辑和理由为今天的大涨做出一堆解释(什么美国加息预期降低,什么欧洲CPI通胀增加,什么欧洲退出QE预期可能提前。。。)。不明白这个原理的朋友很可能会认真学习这些逻辑,但是你会发现,这些逻辑永远只能事后解释,并不能用来预测行情,这些专家也会有预测,但是大部分都不准,即使准确,也是概率,偶尔猜对了罢了,因为下一次预测他就会失效。《海龟交易法则》的丹尼斯知道这个道理,他在挑选优秀交易者的时候有一条原则,就是如果这个交易者没有主见,听从了经纪商或者分析师的建议而改变自己的主意,那么他立刻会被交易团队开除。逻辑还有一个危险性,就是如果你过于相信逻辑,逻辑会在交易中自我强化,你会在交易中变得固执,你的逻辑支持你做多,但是行情开始下跌,你就会搬出自己的逻辑,然后检查一遍,感觉没有错,然后就是盲目坚持,甚至还逆势加仓,最后造成亏损越来越大,等到你不得不怀疑自己的逻辑的时候,亏损已经很大了。这条原则告诉我们:a,  逻辑真的不重要,因为分析逻辑需要时间,逻辑对不对还需要检验,所以索罗斯由句名言     叫做:”有行情先入场,后分析。”b, 不要听从别人的建议,坚持自己的交易系统才是王道,甚至不需要逻辑交易,出现信号就入场。2,自信的沉默:在“小学生”的层面,我描述过80%的人都处于一种盲目的自信,以为学习了技术指标,或者一堆交易方法以后,就可以实现稳定盈利了,其实不然。这里面引入了“老手”和“高手”的概念,老手是在小学生的层面,盲目自信,以为自己知道,其实自己不知道,还到处高谈阔论,讲的都是看似深奥实际没用的东西,他们没有理解各种技术指标背后的意义,技术指标只不过是对最原始的交易数据进行二次加工而已,过度的解读技术指标,其实还不如看最原始的K线。高手不同,高手在别人谈论行情的时候,更多的是“沉默”,为什么会沉默?因为在他们看来,任何事情都可能发生,他要做的只不过是对任何可能发生的事情做好预案而已。比如高手在听两个人争论明天的黄铜期货行情到底是涨还是跌,就感觉跟两个人讨论明天的天气到底是下雨还是晴天一样无聊。对于高手,不会考虑明天下不下雨,而是考虑明天带不带伞的问题(预案)。高手实在是懒得和别人争论,因为在高手的思维里,没有必然性,只有概率。你非要逼他预测明天的行情,他只会说:“明天行情会波动。”而沉默其实是一种胸有成竹自信的表现,也显示出了高手的理解问题的方式,当你做好了一切可能性的预案以后,你已经波澜不惊了,甚至会感觉交易其实是一件挺枯燥的事情。只需要做好计划,然后看行情走就是了。所以,想要在市场中成为最终的赢家,最核心的问题,其实看你有没有足够的信念,你要坚信自己可以成功。大道至简,这是最核心的问题,对这个问题理解的程度,最终决定了你能在市场里走多远。<img src="https://pic4.zhimg.com/50/v2-9974834adeff4ed195f1ad18ef999449_hd.jpg" data-caption="" data-size="normal" data-rawwidth="500" data-rawheight="344" class="origin_image zh-lightbox-thumb" width="500" data-original="https://pic4.zhimg.com/v2-9974834adeff4ed195f1ad18ef999449_r.jpg">——————————————————————————————————第二天的补充:关于信念的问题我想做一些补充。第一:有些朋友和我过分讨论量子力学的问题,我觉得有点舍本逐末,我的核心观点是信念,其实我不太关心量子力学,因为信念是一切的根本,量子力学只是旁证,有没有无所谓。如果你不喜欢量子力学,不看这一段就是了,不影响我对信念的表述。稳定盈利其实还是靠信念,这是一个哲学问题,不是物理问题。第二:我所说的从幼儿园阶段到大学阶段的交易状态是一个渐变的过程,几乎每个交易者都要经历,这个过程是不可跳跃的。有的朋友以为看到了大学阶段,就觉得不需要经历小学和中学了,其实是不行的。原因就涉及到”知识“和”智慧“本质性区别的问题,知识是可以通过学习获得的,智慧只能通过体悟和实践获得。而且“熟知”不等于“真知”。说到这里我想起一件有意思的事情,小时候我住在外婆家,那时候外婆住是民房,冬天北方家里要生炉子取暖,然后过几个小时要往炉子里加煤,炉子的盖子用一个钳子拿下来,放在地上,那个盖子是很烫的。然后家里有只小狗,总喜欢在炉子旁趴着取暖,外婆怕它被盖子烫着,就先把它赶走,结果有一次,小狗趁外婆不注意,还是跑过来,结果趴在了盖子上面,然后我就听着一阵惨叫还有一股焦糊味道。从那以后,小狗只要看到外婆加煤,它就跑的远远的,再也不敢靠近炉子。这个故事说明了一个道理,很多事情如果不亲身经历,体会是不会深刻的,除非你自己亲身经历一遍,对于小狗,外婆赶他走,是”熟知“,知道烫是“真知”。教育孩子也是这样,家长千叮咛万嘱咐,这个不要做,那个不行,其实这样的孩子是没出息的,还不如告诉他有坑和后果,然后允许他去踩,只要后果不太严重就行,这样实践过以后的小孩子的生存能力要远强于“温室里的花朵”。即使你把我今天写的内容看10遍,你可能都不一定真的明白,你一定要去实践,不实践始终是纸上谈兵,没有通过实践得到感悟,就无法形成你自己的”智慧“。而智慧是一种说不出的大道,这也是为什么《金刚经》里面那么多”不可说,不可说“,因为智慧真的很难说出来,只能通过比喻讲给别人。做交易需要的是智慧,所以还是需要自己去验证的。那有人可能会说,既然都要自己实践,那干嘛还要看你的文章呢。答案是师傅领进门,修行在个人。有人引导你摔倒了就马上知道对错,没人引导你可能要在一个地方摔倒多次还无法自拔。但是引导不代表你不需要走路了,路还是要自己去走(实践)。第三:关于信念我多说几句,信念的坚定其实是中庸之道,这一点很重要,不然容易走进一个误区,就是容易犯左倾冒进(冒险)主义,或者右倾投降主义错误(如果具体想搞清楚“左倾”和“右倾”的定义,可以研究下党史的左倾主义和右倾主义错误的表现)。左倾冒进主义:提起信念就跟打了鸡血一样天不怕地不怕,像天平天国的士兵一样,加入拜上帝教,然后给你念几句咒语,然后士兵就大喊着“刀枪不入”的口号往英军的步枪大炮底下冲,那不叫信念,那叫有勇无谋。我在交易中也犯过这样的错误,盲目自信,导致在做盘的时候太执着,而不会变通。扛单,频繁交易,重仓交易,赌气交易,这些错误我都犯过。其实都是盲目自信的结果,觉得自己最牛逼,人定胜天,结果最后损失惨重。右倾投降主义:我看过有个论坛的网友帖子,说现在只要一下单就手抖,他被亏损搞怕了,心理已经有阴影了,面对机会不敢下单了,很确定的行情结果最后只下了一个小单。我把这种人叫做“残疾人”,他已经向这个市场投降了。我们做交易其实要么是太左倾冒进,盲目放大胜率的可能性,表现往往是重仓操作,频繁操作,因为怕错过机会。要么就是太右倾,做单太谨小慎微,明明是很好的机会,不敢下单,眼看机会错失,又开始后悔不已。或者不管什么情况,都用很小的单操作,甚至锁单套利,觉得这样永远不会爆仓,非常安全,交易了很久收益不多但是稳定,但是一旦遇到黑天鹅行情,或者大单边行情,最后的亏损还是大于盈利,“辛辛苦苦几十年,一觉回到解放前。”或者有的交易者不断的在左倾和右倾之间摇摆,变成了”冒进(重仓)--大亏损---谨慎---错过机会---冒进(重仓或者频繁交易)---大亏损----谨慎----错过机会。。。。“这样的恶性循环。所以左倾和右倾的思想都要值得警惕,要始终保持中庸。所以信念不是钢铁,而是水,上善若水,水善利万物而不争。孔子不得志,不得不周游列国,他去拜访老子,问老子如何用礼乐安抚天下,老子不说话只是张开嘴让孔子看看他的牙齿和舌头。孔子马上就明白了,牙齿虽然坚固,但是已经烂了,舌头柔软,但是完好无损。红军二万五千里长征,你们地图上看看,从江西瑞金出发到延安,直线距离也就1000多公里,但是红军走了二万五千里,为什么,因为信念是不可动摇的,但是道路是曲折的,不四渡赤水,不强渡金沙江,不绕行松潘草原,强翻雪山,不南辕北辙,上下左右,东南西北的甩开国民党几十万部队的围剿,怎么才能最终胜利到达延安,估计早都被全歼了。做盘也是一样,行情永远没有直线进行的,即使再好的上升趋势,也是上5个台阶,下2个,然后再上,所以目标是明确的,道路是曲折的。信念就是百折不挠,但是还懂得变通,曲线救国的一种持续力。所以引用我自己的交易打油诗中的一句作为结尾吧:”左倾会冒进,右倾会投降,控制好情绪,走大道中央。”这就是中庸之道。——————————————————————————————————第三天的补充:也是最后的补充了。关于交易系统很多问我交易系统,还以为我不想说,其实不是我不想说,因为你们没有明白:交易系统根本没有交易理念重要。交易理念我都说清楚了,还用说交易系统吗?我曾经写过一个几万字的交易系统,非常详细,详细到入场,立场,加仓,减仓,平仓的时间空间形态每一次细节,结果发现根本就用不了。因为市场是变化的,太具体的操作根本没法执行,于是简化,简化到最后基本上不起作用了,因为跟没写一样,所以最后就干脆不看了。还有一个原因,就是在认知没有达到一定高度的时候,交易系统是有缺陷的。我举个例子:说我曾经的一个习惯,就是抄底摸顶。关于抄底摸顶,我看了很多书,有两种说法。一种是说交易一定要顺势交易,抄底摸顶是逆势操作,绝对不要抄底摸顶,要把抄底摸顶的想法从自己大脑中彻底删除。还有一种说法是,如果不抄底摸顶,等趋势走出来,行情都快走完了。施瓦格的《金融怪杰》里面对华尔街著名交易员保罗.都铎.琼斯(也是我喜欢的交易员)的采访中,琼斯说:“别人都说不要抄底摸顶,但是我的大部分钱都是抄底摸顶赚的。”当时我当然认为保罗.都铎.琼斯是对的,偶像嘛。而且要利润要追求最大化,抄底摸顶如果做对可以吃到一大段行情,艺高人胆大,说不能抄底摸顶的人其实都是没本事的人给自己胆小找的借口而已。所以我的交易系统有很长一段时间是把抄底摸顶当作主要操作模式的。结果大概经过2年,我对期间1400多笔交易做了详细的统计,其中哪些是顺势单,哪些是震荡单,哪些是逆势单(也就是抄底摸顶单),我发现了一个问题,我抄底摸顶的逆势单,胜率只有23%,那赔率呢?其中是有几笔很漂亮的单,赔率甚至超过了50倍,但是残酷的现实是:总体来说,亏损是盈利的3倍以上,也就是亏损远大于盈利。那为什么亏损这么多我自我感觉还良好呢?因为人性的特点就是总是对自己经历的辉煌的一面记忆深刻,对痛苦的一面选择回避或者遗忘。我终于意识到抄底摸顶是一个很不好的习惯,至少它不适合我。曾经我还把它放在交易系统中。所以提高认知和改掉不良习惯,比完善交易系统重要的多,如果你把频繁交易,抄底摸顶,重仓交易,情绪化交易这些不良习惯都通过提升认知的方式彻底改正了,你的交易系统是不会差的。我这里讲一下如何提高交易的认知水平吧:1,学习,求知若渴,多看书,看有干货的书,然后思考,看看现有的认知和书中的思想有什么差异,谁是对的。少看鸡汤,鸡汤除了在亏损的时候用来自我安慰以外其实没什么用;2. 一定要做交易记录,交易记录要记详细,每笔进场的理由是什么,当时的计划是什么,当时的心态,情绪,都要记录,为了以后总结的时候用;3,定期(比如3个月)统计和总结一次,哪些单是顺势,哪些是抄底摸顶,那些是震荡,胜率,赔率如何,当时的心态如何,频繁交易了多少次?重仓交易了多少次?情绪化交易了多少次?这些不良习惯造成了多少亏损?只有认知水平提高了,你才能把“熟知”变为“真知”,你才有从内心深刻体会,从产生克服不良习惯的动力。关于写交易日志,你认真总结了,你才会发现自己的很多问题。这些问题很可能是你忽略的,甚至自我感觉良好的。而且写总结这个东西,你越写越爱写,因为第一总结本来就是帮你大脑把知识和思路归纳和梳理的一个过程,第二其实写总结是交易员自己和自己的对话。交易员是一个很孤独的行业,因为交易是“内求”的行业,我们的工作其实也是一个不断平衡心态的过程。判断交易好坏的标准和世俗的标准是不同的。如果一个不做交易的朋友问你“最近交易做的怎么样?”那么他意思很可能是:“你最近赚了多少钱?”而如果你回答:“很好,最近计划执行的很彻底。”你的朋友肯定会听的一头雾水。所以交易员需要自己和自己对话,为了理清思路甚至缓解压力。如果一定要说我的交易系统,那我就试着总结下:总的原则:赚大赔小,生存第一。只做日线级别的波段行情。1,不做震荡,只做趋势行情。5日均线以上做多,5日均线以下做空;2,趋势的折返行情,比如涨势就折返后收盘在5日均线以上,第二天日内找低点进场,跌势相反;3,震荡行情的震荡区间上下设置提醒(邮件app加短信),突破以后第二天进场(第一天怕假突破),分批隔日加仓;4,当天收盘行情方向破5日均线,比如上涨趋势,当天收盘在5日均线以下,第二天减仓或者平仓止盈;5,止损就是进场后大概看30分钟线的拐点做止损点,或者当天的开盘价做止损点,或者固定比例,比如账户0.5%止损。其实就这么简单,关键是灵活应用。日线波段操作的优点就是不用天天盯盘,比较轻松,提醒后第二天再进场,也不着急,不用太累。只要认知提高了,交易理念是活的,从心所欲不逾矩,要比守着固定的交易系统安全灵活的多,你们仔细想想:波浪理论的掌门罗伯特.普莱切特,海龟交易法则的发明人丹尼斯,大亏离开市场;江恩理论的发明者江恩,华尔街最伟大的操盘手的杰西. 利佛摩尔,均线系统买入法发明者葛兰碧,破产甚至自杀;这些大佬的失败不都是因为他们死守一个固定的交易系统导致的吗?当一个交易系统在市场中适用并且能赚到钱的时候,一旦大量的效仿者一起使用,市场就会发生改变,这些方法就会失效。而如果你有较高的交易认知或者叫做交易智慧的时候,你对市场的改变的察觉敏感性,要远大于一般人,你也会相应改变。这也是为什么我不相信所谓的AI(人工智能)或者程序化交易能在市场长期稳定盈利的主要原因。因为认知的提高和智慧的获得是不断实践出来的,智慧层面的东西,你指望那些程序员能用程序编出来?我觉得是笑话。再说人脑对市场改变的敏感程度远大于程序,程序没办法在市场改变的时候及时做出相应,所以一定会造成盈利的不稳定。炒作的东西不一定是真东西,媒体需要题材做新闻,企业需要风口提高估值溢价水平,政府需要热点做经济增长点,老百姓就被忽悠来忽悠去。就像前几年炒作的3D打印机一样,其实这个东西30年前就有,没什么新意,发展到今天还是关键材料问题没有解决,所谓3D打印,就是把一堆粉状的材料粘合到了一起,硬度较低,放在旅游景区给游客打印个3D头像玩玩还行,工业上根本达不到应用级别的质量要求。就说这么多吧。最后应有些朋友的要求,列一个我认为对交易有用书单吧:技术类书籍:技术书籍只是“工具”,关键是达到什么目的,目的达到以后,就不要执着工具的好坏了,这也是从“小学”阶段跳到“中学”阶段必经的过程,这个过程必须自己去实践,不能跳过。1,地震出版社,约翰.墨菲(丁圣元翻译)的《期货市场技术分析》;2,寰宇证券投资顾问公司的《完全技术分析手册》是台湾翻译美国期货协会的书,繁体字,要代购;3,地震出版社,史蒂夫.尼森(丁圣元翻译)的《日本蜡烛线技术》;4,小罗伯特.普莱切特的《艾略特波浪理论》;5,黄崇的讲座和视频建议看下,把波浪理论,对数坐标的黄金分割率计算,布林带,K线形态学都学习下;6,《海龟交易法则》,不要固守法则,关键是学习科学的建仓方法,一致性等内容。交易心理学,哲学和传记方面:1,索罗斯《金融炼金术》,最好也找一本英文版的,对照着看,这本书的哲学水平较高,翻译的有些词不达意;2,马克.泰尔《巴菲特与索罗斯的投资习惯》,入门级的纪律层面的书籍;3,《华尔街幽灵》,入门级的操作和行为习惯的引导书籍;4,丁圣元翻译的《股票大作手回忆录》和《股票大作手操盘术》,操盘手必看;5,施瓦格《金融怪杰》和《新金融怪杰》,高手访谈录,对体会高手的思维方式很有用;6,雷.达里奥《原则》,桥水大佬的大作;7,安德鲁.希夫《经济为什么会崩溃》,漫画形式,简单易懂的经济学原理,好书;8,塔勒布《黑天鹅》,全是干货;9,马丁.舒华兹《交易冠军》,当小说看挺有意思,其实干货不多;10,珍妮特.洛尔《查理.芒格传》;11,哲学书,陕西师范大学出版社,奥修的《庄子心解》《老子心解》《道德经心释(上、下)》《天下大道》《莲心禅韵》,如果感觉多,只看一本《天下大道》就可以了;12,王阳明的《传习录》注疏,陈荣捷和邓艾名的都行。其他类书籍:1,《毛泽东选集》,带入自己到那个时代,看看毛爷爷当时的思维方式和对中国未来命运的选择方式,对提升自己认知很有帮助;2,我党党史的研究,对左倾主义和右倾主义的错误认识和纠正,对理解“中庸之道”很有帮助;3,红军的长征历史,解放战争史,我军每个大型战役战中战略战术的研究的书籍,对进场后的策略研究很有帮助。书看了很多,大概我觉得有用的就这么多吧

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=487492 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=487492 Sat, 21 Jul 2018 07:50:34 +0000 谈股论金 longterminvestor
周末好!推荐免费视频培训, 简洁易懂, 链接见内。 Kids Webinar, Trading For Beginners, Intermediate Trading, Trading Mastered, Day Trading and Futures Trading Program. Real Life Trading 网站的创办人,今天连续7小时网上授课,all the proceeds go to a charity helping homeless people. (reply) This Millennial Trader Pinpoints Customer Service As A Key Sign Of Company Longevity
https://www.benzinga.com/general/psychology/17/10/10170415/this-millennial-trader-pinpoints-customer-service-as-a-key-sign-of

Kids Webinar
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Trading For Beginners
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Intermediate Trading
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Trading Mastered
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Futures Trading Program
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TradingView Introduction
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Candlestick Analysis in Real Life
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How to Use Finviz
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How to Use Bollinger Bands in Real Life
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Day Trading with Weekly Options
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTDfKcAT2fs

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=455899 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=455899 Sun, 15 Apr 2018 02:43:40 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
我在阿里巴巴上市当天买了200股,也是第一次投资个股。在此之前,用过多次淘宝、天猫,感觉不错。一半一直拿到现在,准备长持。8月份腾讯回调到38块,加了200股,现在都61了。同期进了Google和Amazon,900出头,最近涨势喜人。第一批Amazon,是在股市大跌那天,2015年8月24日,抢来的。那时不懂看盘,3点多瞧了一眼股市,发现有便宜货可捡,就设 limit order @460,没去管它,晚上才知道,碰巧买到了,差不多当天最低。新手没经验,同时 limit order @80 买100股 FB,差一、两块钱没买到,要是懂得用 market order 就好了。后来看着FB涨,心有不甘,一咬牙,多花50%买回来。因为心痛多出的冤枉钱,只好一直拿着。前两天FB下跌,吸取上次第一时间抢购下跌好股的教训 (如V ,PYPL,碰到股市回调,买了还跌,只好追加,在谷底徘徊许久,忍无可忍,等股价回升,已没有多少耐心,只赚了丁点小利,就抛了),等待两天,到176才追加,不久触底反弹,算是尝到了patience的甜头。Google在2016年6月底英国闹脱欧时690进了第一笔。我觉得看准时机,分散持有各行业龙头公司的优质股票,心里踏实。即使跌了,也能很快反弹。短炒,我一般借鉴下面的图表,确认一下买入、卖出。对了,老师推荐的 Mastercard 很棒,8月份127+进的,现在170了。谢谢! 巴菲特说过:时间是优秀企业的朋友,却是平庸企业的敌人。 如何理解滚雪球:长长的坡,厚厚的雪 --- 段永平 (Oppo & Vivo 手机背后的老板) (reply) https://stockinvest.us/technical-analysis/NFLX
https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=zh&Ticker=LABU
https://swingtradebot.com/equities/NVDA
http://www.9trading.com/index.php?symbol=Ntes

https://cn.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-usa/quotes-large-cap/

2016年夏天NFLX一度跌倒80多,买了1000股,但小赚即跑。其实应该留一部分仓位的,因为没多少风险了。当时的顾虑是公司需要不断投资制作新节目,现金流不行。

Simple Swing Trading Strategy
https://www.beststockpickingservices.com/simple-swing-trading-strategy/

如何用Finviz扫股建立关注列表
https://vimeo.com/235102600
https://vimeo.com/236239723


段永平:长长的坡,厚厚的雪

http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/1269981201721735628619
https://xueqiu.com/7181254885/98613083
http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/12699812017103002153928

这两位 Stocktwists 上有不少 followers 的大V,值得跟踪、参考:
被人称为 Biotech Queen:
https://stocktwits.com/cybercash28

此人喊单,bullish、bearish信号精准:
https://stocktwits.com/LiveTradePro

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=430027 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=430027 Fri, 26 Jan 2018 20:52:06 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
ETF 投资信息 (reply) ETF投资指南
https://xueqiu.com/3926587841/77613762

ETF Directory Last Updated 1/21/2018
https://www.stocktrader.com/etfs/

ETF Daily News
https://stocktwits.com/ETFDailyNews

那一把杠杠ETF里的笑里刀
https://xueqiu.com/9598793634/75708691

ETF Screener
http://etfdb.com/screener/

ETF官方说明
http://www.direxioninvestments.com/etfs#!/

北美股市方向ETF,包括美国和加拿大:
http://www.3dfn.com/北美股市反向etf杠杆etf列表/

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=427962 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=427962 Sun, 21 Jan 2018 17:17:55 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
国外经典股市投资、投机书籍,中文PDF分享,外加英文原著链接: (reply) 让我们与成功者为伍,做时间的朋友!

巴菲特:时间是优秀企业的朋友,却是平庸企业的敌人。
我投资生涯前25年所犯的错误
http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/1269981201802011332274/

巴菲特、芒格谈做空:
http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/1269981201501823742189

国外投资名著,中文PDF分享:
https://www.douban.com/group/topic/79017424/

第三本《通向财务自由之路》可用下面链接。已经试过,工作!
密码:24oe
http://pan.baidu.com/s/1o7MNRHg
中文版网上直接阅读:
http://www.5kongsoft.com/s/ziyou/

英文版投资原著PDF请看这里:
http://www.traders-software.com/Free%20Download/

《金融怪杰》(MARKET WIZARDS)一书出版以来,一直被列為美国金融操作人员必读的书籍之一,至今仍十分畅销。
http://reader.epubee.com/?book=6b/6bd883e6b53c179d9f0f76820cf39c46.epub#epubcfi(/6/8[id_4]!4/80/1:0)
http://www.fxcheng.com/uploads/soft/130701/1-130F11G309.txt
http://www.fxcheng.com/book/jrgj/

有声书:
http://www.ximalaya.com/42721659/album/3913814/


Trading in the Zone (美)交易心理分析 英中对照版PDF
http://doc.xueqiu.com/148ee78bcdf46a3fe0392dd1.pdf

《以交易为生》
英文听书:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wkrbbkU9xds
中文电子书:
https://yuedu.baidu.com/ebook/68a39c0c5e0e7cd184254b35eefdc8d376ee149f?fr=partnerview###
http://www.net767.com/book/jiaoyiweisheng/

Come into My Trading Room - A Complete Guide to Trading
走进我的交易室 - 完整的交易指导
中英对照PDF
http://www.bagualu.net/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ComingToMyTradingRoom.pdf

Saul's Investing Discussions: My Portfolio at the end of Jan 2018
http://boards.fool.com/my-portfolio-at-the-end-of-jan-2018-32965083.aspx?sort=postdate

教你炒股票108课【缠中说禅】_教育培训在线收听-喜马拉雅FM
http://www.ximalaya.com/54123135/album/4708604/
http://www.52investing.com/pindu/1_4
声音最好听的要算芷涵频道
http://www.ximalaya.com/38154100/album/6232638/

<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/7AfoYgig4T10mN7oQ2qpKS1JrYZ8CF.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>


喜马拉雅APP:
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/nPl7oFWK6BsRDbaygtwK13JoGleYHc.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/VLv6t4cA1NRcVwQxsEvshEJmmycCea.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/Tk76p8CDtBOTzr8lV3UmmlDWHA8kgp.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

雪球财经:聪明的投资者都在听
<p><img src="/wizard/uploads2/Z1AqkfBzvJlrGLXnqapyg6FVD9ukCo.PNG" style=" max-width:850px; width:auto; height:auto" /></p>

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=427940 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=427940 Sun, 21 Jan 2018 16:40:49 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
周末好!借花献佛,祝交易顺利,不断提高!分享: Chat with Traders 采访系列。 Index Investing 详解 - Free eBook Download。亚马逊也刚刚推出此书,见以下链接。 (reply) Chat with Traders:
https://soundcloud.com/chat-with-traders
https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCdnzT5Tl6pAkATOiDsPhqcg

Chat with Traders #27
https://soundcloud.com/chat-with-traders/ep-027-jack-schwager

Chat with Traders #1
https://soundcloud.com/chat-with-traders/ep-001-jerry-robinson

Lessons Learned and Resources for All Episodes:
https://chatwithtraders.com/podcast-episodes/


指数投资详解:
http://indexinvesting.xyz/Investing%20in%20Stock%20Market%20Indexes%20to%20become%20a%20millionaire.pdf

https://www.amazon.com/invest-Market-Indexes-become-millionaire-ebook/dp/B078R7D6NV/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1516548464&sr=8-3&keywords=How+to+invest+in+stock+market+indexes

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=427912 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=427912 Sun, 21 Jan 2018 15:23:03 +0000 谈股论金 ttjj
Leverage EFTs Decay Dashboard (reply) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4136821-leveraged-etfs-decay-dashboard?uprof=45&isDirectRoadblock=false

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=424053 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=424053 Thu, 11 Jan 2018 17:17:17 +0000 谈股论金 LR
<!--html--><span style="color:red;">The Loss Trap by Van K. Tharp Ph.D</span> (reply) Do you remember playing with a toy called the Chinese Finger Trap when you were a child? This toy is a woven straw cylinder with an opening at each end just large enough for a finger. Once you insert a finger in each end, you are in the trap. You pull to get out and the trap closes around your fingers. The harder you pull to get out, the tighter the cylinder compresses around your fingers. The more you struggle with the trap, the more ensnared you become. Only when you let go and relax does the trap let go of you.

Investment losses form a similar trap for most people—the Loss Trap. The more an investor resists losses, the more ensnared the investor becomes in the Loss Trap—a psychological snare with numerous hidden factors that keep people locked into it. The more the investor struggles with losses, the worse the losses become.

Consider the case of Brad, an investor who wants to make a killing in a speculative stock. First, he pays $5,000 for a stock, including nearly $200 in expenses. These transaction costs start the investment off at a loss, so Brad is already in the trap. He has passed a critical point in time, the point of no return, where thinking often becomes irrational and risk takes on its real meaning.

Soon, the stock goes down in value to $4,300. Brad thinks to himself, "I have a loss, but it will turn around.” These are normal thoughts, resulting from his natural inclination to justify his stock purchase. As a result, he reasons, "I can afford to lose a few hundred dollars more to make a nice profit.” When people are in the Loss Trap, they avoid the sure loss and take an unwise gamble that often leads to greater losses.

The stock goes down further, so that it is only worth $3,800. Somehow, Brad reasons, the stock has gone down so far that it cannot possibly go down any more. He can afford to risk a few hundred dollars more to make back his stake. Brad has now lost sight of his original profit goal, if he had one, and just wants to break even on this trade.

What happens next? The stock goes down to $2,500. Our investor cannot give up now. His stock hasn’t been priced this low in years. Besides, he has “spent” $2,500 on it at this point.

His stock must have bottomed, so the risk of holding onto it is minimal—he thinks. He holds onto his investment and soon only has $500 left.

Each possible loss that our investor envisions is compared against what has already been lost. Each time he imagines that his investment has reached rock bottom, he can envision no further risk. The stock can only go up. He already has so much at stake that he might as well continue holding the investment. And with each loss the trap gets tighter. Unfortunately, the only way to get out of such a trap is to let go of the trade, but the investor often is financially exhausted by that time.

How Do You View Losses?

Various hidden factors are involved in the Loss Trap. These factors include a person's perspective on the loss, inability to accept the possibility of being wrong and misjudgment of extreme probability levels. Take a look at the following choices and determine which decision you find more acceptable:

Would you find a $200 expense acceptable if it gave you a 60% chance to win $350 and a 40% chance of no gain?

or

Would you take a risk that gave you a 60% chance to win $150 and a 40% chance to lose $200?

If you are like most people, you probably decided that the first risk was acceptable. After all, you could win $350 and not risk anything except expenses.

How did you feel about the second decision? Perhaps it did not seem as good. You only have the opportunity to win $150 and you could lose even more. Losing more than you can win is not as acceptable to most people.

But look at the two decisions again. Mathematically, they are equivalent, working out to an expected value of ($150 x 60%)-($200 x 40%) = $10. The apparent difference is that a loss is viewed as an expense in the first decision, while it is presented as a loss—which it is—in the second one. If you realized the two decisions were the same, congratulations. Hopefully, you are just as perceptive when real money is at stake.

Investors have a tendency to view losses as something other than losses and that keeps us from seeing the Loss Trap for what it really is. For example, virtually every investment you purchase will start out at a loss because of the transaction costs. If you are like most people, that money is an expense, not a loss, which puts you in the Loss Trap as soon as you enter the market.

Many investors, in fact, keep up-to-date records of their investment activity, but they do not include transaction costs in those records. They keep a separate record of their expenses. As a result, they allow themselves to lose money each year, because they view those losses as expenses.

Other investors continue to lose money every year because they view losses as tax write-offs. Investors frequently boast that they limit their speculative losses to $3,000 each year, because that is the maximum allowed as a tax write off. Somehow, tax write-offs justify the continual loss of money in speculative investments. Those cannot be bad, can they? They put you in a lower tax bracket and allow you to get money back from the government.

Both of these examples illustrate how your perspective can influence your bottom line, namely: If what you see differs from "what is,” you will have difficulty making a profit.

Being Right or Making Money

People tend to deceive themselves the most. Self-deception occurs each time a person clings to a false belief, and everyone holds many false beliefs. Self-deception greatly increases the risk of failure since we really do not know what we are confronting. When we fail because of self-deception, we continually face the same problem over and over again because it has not been resolved.

Again, look at the example of Brad, the stock market investor. When he first fell behind by $700, he could not admit he was wrong and take the loss. When his stock continued to fall, he could not admit the possibility that it would fall any farther. In fact, the more the price fell, the more difficult it was to admit that it would go down any more.

Once people commit to something, they become extremely confident about their decisions. For example, psychological researchers taught a group of people to read stock charts and then asked them to predict from another set of charts whether prices would be higher or lower a month later. These trained forecasters were correct on 47% of their stock predictions—around chance levels—but their confidence in the accuracy of their predictions was much higher than chance—at around 65%. In fact, they were no more correct when their confidence was high than when their confidence was low.

How about extreme confidence—those times when people are really sure they are correct? Research has shown that when people give odds of 100-to-1 that they are correct, they actually are right only 75%-80% of the time. So, although they rate their confidence at 100-to-1, the actual odds should have been about 3.5-to-1.

Once people commit themselves to a position, even if it goes strongly against them, they become fully ensnared in the Loss Trap. They are so confident they are right, that they are willing to bet more and more money in their misplaced confidence. Thus, Brad was able to lose $700, $1,200, $2,500 and eventually $4,500 to prove that he could not be wrong.

Judging Extreme Probabilities

Suppose you have a lottery ticket that gives you a chance to win a $50,000 prize. How much is the lottery ticket worth to you if the odds are 1 million-to-1 of winning? Actually, the ticket is worth five cents in terms of the probability of winning $50,000, but people all over the country are paying $1 for it. People rate probability chances as more significant at the extremes. In particular, an increase from 0% to 5%, and an increase from 95% to 100% each have more impact on people than a change from 30% to 35%. This is why people have a tendency to “go for the big one” even though the odds are extremely small.

Suppose you are Brad and you have a $4,500 loss on your stock. Let's further suppose that you are given two choices about the future. You are told that you have a 95% chance of losing your entire $5,000 and a 5% chance of getting all your money back if you hang onto the stock. Which would you do?

Most people would hang on, hoping to get all of their money back. The increased value associated with moving from sure loss (a zero chance of winning) to the improbable (a 5% chance of getting your money back) increases the attractiveness of taking a chance.

Mathematically, your chances in this same situation are not good. If you made this decision 100 times, you would lose $5,000 on average 95 times for a total loss of $475,000. In contrast, if you took the sure loss of $4,500 each of the 100 times, then you would lose a total of $450,000. Thus, you would save $25,000 or an average of $250 each time you took the sure loss.

Taking the sure loss frees an investor from the Loss Trap, but the more attractive option is to stay deep within its jaws. Taking the sure loss seems less attractive than the hope that one's fortune might turn around by holding onto the position. And as you have already learned, people in the Loss Trap tend to overestimate the odds of "lady luck" suddenly turning in their favor.

The solution to avoiding the Loss Trap is simple. It constitutes a fundamental law of speculative investing: Cut your losses short!

But simple solutions are often difficult to follow. That is why those who follow them make large profits from the many who do not. In fact, many successful speculators lose money 60%-70% of the time, but their losses are generally small and their profits are generally large.

Unfortunately, most people have trouble turning small profits into large ones. Instead, they cash in their profits quickly and do not allow them to grow.

=======================================================================

墨大侠,能不能把你推荐的书列个List存在这里?有空也想好好读读书。 [ 没有文字 ] - SunnyDay, 2017-07-30 […] [○] [x]
列个书单是可以的,不过,书要一本一本地读。我建议你读 Van Tharp 的著作《Trading Beyond The Matrix》读完这本书,如果你对炒股还有兴趣,你自己就知道应该读什么了。我过去大半年自己计划读很多书,但是,有很多没有读,却读了很多原来没在计划中的书。如果没有强烈的兴趣,读书是很苦的事情。有一本书,《Power of Now》,我现在大概听了超过20遍,读文本四五遍。《A New Earth》这本书,我听大概也有十遍了。 [ 没有文字 ] - 伍点墨, 2017-07-30

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=370715 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=370715 Sat, 29 Jul 2017 09:48:02 +0000 谈股论金 伍点墨
The Flow of the Markets By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D. (reply) Imagine yourself floating down a river, only you don't know that you are. You do, however, notice that when you move in one direction, with the flow of the river, you move rapidly. When you move in another direction, against the river, you move slowly or not at all. In fact, when you go in that direction, you seem to put out a lot more effort just to stay in place. Your life becomes a struggle. It just seems to push you in another direction. Feeling miserable, you fight against it. But it doesn't help. You still seem to move only in one direction—with the flow of the river.


Most people prefer to struggle against the river. They try everything they can think of to go upstream. All solutions like this—going against the flow—have the same result: frustration. If you were in the river, what could you do to make your life easier? One solution would be to get out of the river. But that would be giving up. There is only one easy solution—to acknowledge or accept that the problem has nothing to do with the river. The river just is. And it moves downstream and nothing you do can change that. When you realize that the problem stems from you, then the solution becomes obvious—just relax and flow with the river.

Buy High, Sell Low?

One of the oldest adages in market psychology is "Don't be afraid to buy high and sell low." Let's analyze what that means. If the market price is high, then the market is moving up. Those who are afraid to buy because the market is too high are fighting the flow of the river. It is possible the river may change direction, but you cannot predict if it will by determining how long it has been flowing in a particular direction. It may continue in the same direction for an unspecified length of time. Then again, if the market price is down, it also indicates the direction of the flow of the river. Those who are afraid to sell, once again, are fighting the flow.

Why do traders resist the flow of the markets? They do so because they play psychological games with the market. The most common game involves not being willing to give up what you perceive to be control, the need to be right, although you have no control over the market flow.

When you are struggling with the market, the struggle becomes all consuming. You don't realize that you are struggling with the market. Instead, you find yourself always looking for some solution to overcome the struggle. The struggle obscures the obvious solution: Letting go.

For example, suppose you have a tendency to be in a perpetual market bear, always expecting the market to go down. For you, every little turn in the market is evidence that the market is turning. As a result, you always go short and consequently, take a beating. You repeat the process, over and over, until the market actually turns down. With each transaction the struggle against the flow of the market intensifies for you.

Even worse is the trader who refuses to accept the inevitability of eventual loss. The market moves against each position the trader takes, but he refuses to go with the flow and refuses to accept the loss, no matter how small. It is an affront to the trader's ego. As a result, he refuses to accept it and the loss becomes larger. The bigger loss is even harder to take and the trader again refuses to accept it. The struggle continues until the loss becomes so overwhelmingly large that the trader has no choice but to take the loss.

The solution to the problem of resisting market flow is to realize that the problem has nothing to do with the market. The problem stems from you, the trader. The market is not going against you personally. The market is simply moving. Whether you go with the flow of the market or struggle against it, the market will continue to flow, taking you with it one way or another. Market flow is bigger than any individual trader. The question is whether you realize how you are creating your struggle against the market. When you push against the market, the market seems to push back. But the market is not the problem.

The trader's struggle with the market is the problem.

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=370121 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=370121 Thu, 27 Jul 2017 03:42:32 +0000 谈股论金 伍点墨
<!--html--><span style="color:red;">ZT:六大均线系统的作用</span> (reply) 2011-01-14 伍新新
一、攻击线即是5日均线,其主要作用是推动股价在短期内形成攻击态势,不断引导股价上涨或下跌。如果攻击线上涨角度陡峭有力(没有弯曲疲软的状态),则说明股价短线爆发力强。反之,则弱。同样,在股价进入下跌阶段时,攻击线也是重要的杀跌武器,如果向下角度陡峭,则杀跌力度极强。
在临盘实战中,当股价突破攻击线,攻击线呈陡峭向上的攻击状态时,则意味着短线行情已经启动,此时应短线积极做多。同理,当股价击穿攻击线,攻击线呈向下拐头状态时,则意味着调整或下跌行情已经展开,此时应短线做空。
二、操盘线即是指10日均线,也有行情线之称。操盘线的主要作用是推动股价在一轮中级波段行情中持续上涨或下跌。如果操盘线上涨角度陡峭有力,则说明股价中期上涨力度强。反之,则弱。同样,在股价进入下跌波段时,操盘线同样可促使股价反复盘跌。
在临盘实战中,当股价突破操盘线,操盘线呈持续向上的攻击状态时,则意味着波段性中线行情已经启动,此时应短线积极做多。同理,当股价击穿操盘线,操盘线呈向下拐头状态时,则意味着上涨行情已经结束,大波段性调整或下跌行情已经展开,此时应中线做空。
三、辅助线即是指20日均线。辅助线的主要作用是协助操盘线,推动并修正股价运行力度与趋势角度,稳定股价趋势运行方向。同时,也起到修正生命线反应迟缓的作用。在一轮波段性上涨行情中,如果辅助线上涨角度较大并陡峭有力,则说明股价中线波段上涨力度极强。反之,则弱。同样,股价在下跌阶段时,辅助线更是股价反弹时的强大阻力,并可修正股价下跌轨道,反复促使股价震荡盘跌。
在临盘实战中,当股价突破辅助线,辅助线呈持续向上的攻击状态时,则意味着波段性中线行情已经启动,此时应短线积极做多。同理,当股价击穿辅助线,辅助线呈向下拐头状态时,则意味着阶段性中线上涨行情已经结束,而阶段性调整或下跌行情已经展开,此时应中线做空。
四、生命线即是指30日均线。生命线的主要作用是指明股价的中期运行趋势。在一个中期波段性上涨动行趋势中,生命线有极强的支撑和阻力作用。如果生命线上涨角度陡峭有力,则说明股价中期上涨趋势强烈,主力洗盘或调整至此位置可坚决狙击。反之,则趋势较弱,支撑力也将疲软。同样,在股价进入下跌趋势时,生命线同样可压制股价的反弹行为,促使股价持续走弱。
生命线是一轮大波段上涨或下跌行情的生命基础。在临盘实战中,当股价突破生命线,生命线呈拐头向上攻击状态时,则意味着中线大波段行情已经启动,此时应中线积极做多。生命线在一轮大波段行情的阶段性调整过程中,不会轻易被击穿。然而,一量当股价击穿生命线,生命线呈拐头向下状态时,则意味着更大级别的调整或下跌行情已经展开,此时应中线积极做空。
五、决策线即是指60日均线。决策线的主要作用是指明股价的中期反转趋势,指导股价大波段级别运行于既定的趋势之中。当股价放量向上或向下突破决策线时,则说明一轮大级别的反转行情已经启动,临盘应做出相应的操盘决策。股价突破决策线时,一般情况下不会在较短时间内出现反方向运行,即是是主力作出诱多或诱空动作,至少也会在决策线之上或之下运行10~25个交易日左右方可反转。
在临盘实战中,所有的主力对决策线都 有清醒的认识。决策线在主力机构的操盘计划中有着对行情性质决定性的重大意义。因而,当股价突破决策线,决策线呈拐头向上的攻击状态时,则意味着中线大趋势多头行情已经形成,此时应中线积极做多。决策一旦形成,一般情况下均不会轻易更改。所以,股价一旦突破决策线后,即不会在阶段性调整中轻易击穿这一决策性支撑。然而,一旦当股价向下击穿决策线,决策线呈向下拐头状态时,则意味着一轮大级别的下跌行情已经展开,此时应中线果断做空。
六、趋势线即是指120日均线。和决策线一样,趋势线的主要作用也是指明股价中长期的反转趋势,引导或指导股价大波段大级别运行于既定的趋势之中。当股价放量向上或向下突破趋势线时,则说明股价大趋势已经发生逆转,临盘应做出相应的操盘决策。
股价突破趋势线时,一般情况下不会在较短时间内出现反方向运行,即使是主力作出诱多或诱空动作,至少也会在趋势线之上或之下运行10个交易日或数个交易周左右方可反转。

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http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=362422 http://xlkezhan.com/forum/index.php?id=362422 Wed, 28 Jun 2017 14:37:54 +0000 谈股论金 gzhuye