3/31/2017
金，气，油和所有相关3X的ETF讨论区。警告：3倍ETF是高风险的股票炒作，炒作者最好自行斟酌是否合适，新手最好避开！ (谈股论金)  5163次阅读

作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2017-03-31 (2589天前)

黄金：

金价还是在区间震荡的格局，金矿股除了受到金价的直接影响，尤其也受到大盘涨跌的影响。
金价若跌破MA50（约1227元）就会继续向下，突破MA200（大约在1267元），就继续上涨的趋势。

下周习川会谈与下周五的非农就业报告会影响金价的走势。习川会谈估计不会太愉快，要留意两人是否在结束时有没有握手，握手时间有没有超过1分钟。川普与日相安倍晋三的会面显然是愉快的，与德国的总理墨克尔拒绝握手显然不太痛快，据说川普还请幕僚虚构一张账单3300亿美元交给墨克尔，要求她付账。说是欠美国保护德国的军费加利息！

操作建议：
目前做多黄金和金矿股是顺势，做空是逆势，只适合短炒高手，快进快出。
NUGT：在8.8-9.2元买进，9.3-10元卖出。
DUST：买进在29.5-30元。目标是31-32元。

原油：

昨天WTI原油突破了50美元，最高约在50.5美元。技术面上原油已经是利多的走势，昨天已突破中线，前天MACD交叉了。然而基本面还没看到继续支持原油上涨的因素。如果今天可以看到原油跌破50元，做空仓位可以继续拿着。下周三的EIA报告，原油库存继续增加的可能性很大，而且很可能出现较高的增产数据，比如3万桶以上的周增产量。

今天BKH的钻油台数目估计还是增加，只是最近尽管不断增加，并没有造成原油价格的波动。似乎市场已经认为增加是理所当然的。

因利比亚不知道什么时候恢复产量，近期WTI的价格波动应该向上修正，估计是在48-50.5元之间。

操作建议：
SCO（2X）：买进价在36.68-38.28元之间。目标是40-42元。
DWT（3X）：买进价在27.1-227.5元之间，目标是31.5-33.元。

天然气：

天然气今早上涨可能是受到今天和周末东北部地区下雪， 科罗拉多州北部地区下雪的影响。

下周四的EIA报告俺估计修正为[+3，+15]BCF， 五年平均为-19BCF。 可是下下周四的报告会是利多，很可能恢复负值。

昨天EIA的报告-43BCF出来后，天然气价瞬间暴跌1.5%，而立刻反弹。市场预期是-42，照理说不会有这么大的上下波动才对。 可见目前天然气价位是在中间，还没方向性，多空拉扯激烈！

俺认为近期天然气会在2.98-3.22元之间来回振荡整理，大约10%的振幅。UGAZ或DGAZ的波动可达30%。 最可能在3.0-3.2元之间波动。可以在3.05-3.1元之间买进，3.19-3.22时作空。

操作建议：
UGAZ可以在20-20.6元买进。未来目标是21.5-22元。
DGAZ可以在19.8.-20.2元买进，未来目标是21.5-22.元。

NOAA8-14天的气温预报有改善，可以比较下面3/20日与3/29日的图形。

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利比亚新闻：http://www.digitaljournal.com/business/oil-exports-halted-from-two-western-libya-oil-ports/article/489195

The pipeline from Libya's biggest oil field Sharara has been shut down. A group of militia guarding the field shut down the pipeline due to a delay in the payment of their wages Libyan officials said. The pipeline had been just opened last December after having been closed for two years. Together with production from eastern fields Libya's production was said to reach 700,000 barrels a day but the shutdown of the pipeline and another one to the smaller Wafa field will lessen production by about 250,000 barrels a day. However officials expected that the dispute would be resolved shortly. Repso SA of Spain and ENI SpA of Italy who both have stakes in the two fields did not reply to requests for comment.
The increase in Libya's exports ceased briefly for the short while that two ports, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf were captured from the forces of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar. However, he has recaptured them and already one tanker has been loading oil at Es Sider.
The tanker Sea Vine was to arrive at Zawiya on Wednesday to load 600,000 barrels of crude but the booking has been canceled according to a source who did not want to be identified. However, Bloomberg tanker tracking still shows that the Sea Vine is headed for Zawiyah. Libya's output per day is now around 500,000 the lowest since last September. There has been no official comment by the NOC according to Reuters. Before the uprising against Gaddafi in 2011 output was about 1.6 million barrels per day. The NOC had been hoping to quickly increase production.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/business/oil-exports-halted-from-two-western-libya-oil-ports/article/489195#ixzz4cua41qs5