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作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2018-07-12 (2326天前) @ 雅歌

UPDATE: Bank earnings are expected to shine, but their stocks may not
2:27 pm ET July 12, 2018 (MarketWatch)
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By Ciara Linnane, MarketWatch

JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will kick off the second-quarter earnings season on Friday

The second-quarter earnings season will kick off in earnest on Friday, when three of the nation's biggest banks report, and analysts are expecting somewhat of a repeat of the first quarter, when the sector chalked up record gains. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-tax-cuts-more-banks-are-profitable-now-than-in-the-past-two-decades-2018-05-22)

Against the current backdrop of a flattening yield curve, however, it's not clear that strong results will succeed in reviving stock prices that have underperformed the broader market since February, as the initial euphoria around the tax revamp, expected deregulation and the strong economy dimmed.

"Many bull thesis drivers were baked-in and the flatter curve and tariff concerns have led to a de-rating," said Jefferies analyst Ken Usdin. "Rising rates will continue to help, but deposit costs are rising faster and loan growth needs to step up."

Yields on the short end of the curve have been steadily climbing as the Federal Reserve telegraphs its planned interest rate hikes, while yields on the long end of the curve are flat or falling, raising the specter of an inverted yield curve, typically a harbinger of recession. But even without a recession, there are concerns that banks will be unable to benefit from rising interest rates if long-term rates remain subdued. That's because net interest margins, or the difference between what they pay depositors and what they charge for loans, will remain compressed.

The yields on two-year and 10-year Treasury notes rose during the second quarter, but the spread between those yields narrowed to 33 basis points as of June 29 from 47 basis points as of March 29.