9/21/2018 《美元与金矿股趋势的转变》和《天然气昨天暴涨的原因》（完成） (谈股论金)  5063次阅读

作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2018-09-21 (2263天前)
编辑: 雅歌, 时间: 星期五, 九月 21, 2018, 11:51

天然气：

下周四的天然气库存稍微偏向利多，俺估计在[62，72]BCF之间，5年平均是79.2BCF。 到昨天为止的一周，全美气温偏热，与8月初的夏天气温一样。另外，南卡和北卡的核能发电厂因为飓风来临，和水灾的问题减少了高达5GW的发电量，增加了天然气发电量的比例大约10%来取代。

天然气的产量继续增加，过去一周的日均产量到了83.9BCF/日，天然气的价格会跌下来，但要等到南卡和北卡的核能发电厂恢复运转。

所以昨天抄底或之前被套牢的，不用担心，估计未来5日内，应该可以看到北卡恢复大约近2GW的发电量。
DGAZ下周应该会回到22-23元。

以下是EIA 的评论，简单说Florence飓风造成停电是利空，然而后来南卡的核能发电厂降载，变成利多。

In the News:

Hurricane Florence affects natural gas demand for electricity in the Carolinas

Hurricane Florence affected the natural gas market last week as lower electricity consumption resulted in decreased natural gas consumption by natural gas-fired electricity generators. Although Florence made landfall on Friday, September 14 as a Category 1 hurricane, it remained over the Carolinas as a tropical storm through Saturday night, causing numerous power outages and reducing demand for electricity. According to Genscape data, the volume of natural gas delivered from interstate transmission pipelines to electric utilities in North Carolina and South Carolina decreased by 0.8 Bcf/d on Saturday, September 15 compared to the previous week―September 7–13―when deliveries averaged 2.0 Bcf/d.

The National Hurricane Center warned that life-threatening storm surges and catastrophic flooding would accompany Hurricane Florence. The storm made landfall at 7:15 a.m. Friday near the North Carolina-South Carolina border then moved slowly along the South Carolina coast; Florence was downgraded to a tropical depression on Sunday. Because of widespread power outages, peak electric loads over the weekend were 30%–35% lower compared to the previous weekend―September 8–9.

According to EIA’s Hurricane Florence Status Report published the morning of Saturday, September 15, more than 800,000 customers in North Carolina (16%) and 95,000 customers in South Carolina (4%) were without power. However, Duke Energy has confirmed that almost 1.7 million customers experienced an outage as a result of Hurricane Florence. As of Tuesday, September 18, EIA estimated that 6% of customers in North Carolina and less than 1% of customers in South Carolina remained without power.

Duke Energy, which includes Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress East and West, accounted for about 75% of the estimated 0.8 Bcf/d decline in natural gas consumption. Since Monday, however, deliveries to electric utilities and power plants have increased to 2.3 Bcf/d on average, according to data from Genscape, which is slightly higher than the levels observed in the previous week. Natural gas use by electricity generators is now 10% higher than pre-storm levels, which offsets a 3 gigawatt (GW) decline in the availability of nuclear capacity. The 1.86 GW Brunswick nuclear power plant, located 4 miles from the coast near Wilmington, North Carolina, shut down its units on Thursday, September 13 in preparation for the storm and remains offline. An additional 1.16 GW of capacity is offline as the second unit at the McGuire nuclear plant undergoes planned maintenance.

Nuclear energy is the primary electricity-generating fuel in North Carolina and South Carolina, accounting for 43% of total electricity generated in the two states in 2016. Although coal (26%) accounted for a larger share than natural gas (24%) of net electric power generation in 2016, natural gas has since surpassed coal in both states. In May 2018, natural gas accounted for 30% of net generation in North Carolina and 16% of net generation in South Carolina while coal accounted for 24% and 13%, respectively.

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-temp-1

记得俺一个多月前说过，美元指数可能在9月底美联储加息之后会转为利空，没想到已经提前一周转为利空了。在9/12日跌破MA50后，就一直在MA50 以下，昨天的大跌似乎确认了走势的改变。请看下面美元指数图。

从基本面来看，过去6个月来支持美元强势的因素是：

1。贸易战， 这因素占的比例在60%。

这一点可以回顾每一次川普政府提出升高贸易战时，美元就上涨，投资人大举买进美政府债卷避险，导致长期债卷的收益率逆向下跌。过去7个月来，美政府10年债卷收益率2度站上3%， 但因为贸易战的因素跌下来，回到2.8%附近。

2。美联储加息， 这因素占的比例大约是25%。

3。相对强劲的美国经济，欧盟与日本货币相对宽松，造成相对货币的强弱， 大约占剩下的15%因素。

最近几日来，美政府10年债卷收益率到了大约3.07%附近，稳站3%以上。新债王Gundlach预言美债会崩盘。， 长期债卷收益率会快速上升。这表示外国投资人会因此抛售美债。另外，市场也担心中国政府因中美贸易战升级，而抛售美债。中国可是拥有近1.2兆美元的美债。

影响美元汇率的因素除了上面的三点， 在负面上还有：

1。美国联邦政府的赤字大幅增加，今年发行的债卷金额是去年的一倍，所以美政府债卷价格会大跌，必须提高收益率来吸引投资人。

2。美中贸易战升级，美国对伊朗，俄罗斯，土耳其的制裁措施，造成许多国家的央行降低美元的外汇存底。俄罗斯现在有近90% 的外汇不是美元。若是中国政府悄悄坚持3000亿美元的债卷，美元汇率会大跌。

去年2017年美联储也一直在加息，美国的经济也是转强，然而美元汇率却下跌，美元指数从103跌至今年年初最低的88， 下跌了大约15%！ 是川普发动贸易战，造成了美元指数转强的开始。当然联储会偏向鹰派的声明也助长了美元的强势。可是川普对美联储施压，不希望加息，多少会有些效果。至少有部分联储会成员已经表明不愿意再加息的立场，来呼应川普，讨好川普。

所以俺认为虽然9月和12月分，美联储会继续加息，但明年的加息次数会因为川普的压力而减少。这是改变美元趋势的一个辅助原因。

若美债卷崩盘，如Gundlach所预测的，美元指数会跌破MA200（大约在92.59），明年3月份，年底联储会的点阵图若出现2019年的加息次数少于原先的3次，美元指数可能会跌破90。

今年Q3， Q4的经济成长会不如Q2。到了明年，联邦政府减税的效应会消失，而贸易战的效应会出现，美国GDP的增长会进一步放缓。这是利空美元。

对黄金和金矿股趋势的改变。

美元下跌对金价和金矿股是利多。但未来这利多的因素不止如此，会被放大许多。

若是美债崩盘，10年收益率走向3.5%-4%， 进入长期的熊市，未来股市的避险工具将从美债转为黄金和金矿股，也有部分会转为日债和德国的政府债卷。这会让金价和金矿股暴涨，因为这避险的资金相当庞大，只要有数百亿美元进入黄金市场，就会撑暴，造成金价涨到1350元以上。所以通常MM炒家会同时炒作金矿股当作杠杆，金矿股的涨幅会比金价高2-5倍。金矿股可以吸纳比黄金期货市场更多的资金。

最近一周来，金价与金矿股指数GDX产生大幅度的背离现象，GDX的涨幅比例与金价的涨幅拉开。比如一周前金价在1208元时，DUST在43元，昨天在相同的位置DUST跌至37元。现在金价在1202元，DUST还在37.5元附近。上周金价在1202元时，DUST在45元附近！

这背离的原因就是因为GDX， NUGT取代美债成为避险工具！过去8个月来，黄金与金矿股没有成为避险工具是事实，现在开始看到转变！